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2023 STS MiLB Players of the Year: First Base
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“It is about getting things to one number.” This is the first line from a quote on the Scout the Statline About page from the movie “Moneyball” which I feel best encapsulates the vision that Ross Jensen and Jordan Rosenblum had when they created their website. This quasi-concept gave birth to “Peak Projections,” a statistical approach and formula that uses unbiased statistical data, historical equivalencies from MLB player comparisons, and an aging curve to predict a player’s performance at their very best. It was because of this pivotal innovation that you find yourself reading this sentence right now.
Since then, Scout the Statline has further immersed itself within the baseball community and taken into account their followers’ feedback. Alongside daily leaderboards and player evaluations, the platform has expanded its reach to include social media content, website periodicals, articles, a YouTube channel featuring the Bats & Stats podcast and player evaluation videos, and The Hobby Advantage for baseball card enthusiasts.
As we wrap up our first full season covering the realm of fantasy baseball, we present to you our highly anticipated MiLB Positional Players of the Year Prospectus. Over the next ten days, we will unveil the best prospects in each position, culminating in the announcement of the 2023 Scout the Statline MiLB Player of the Year.
We want to thank you, the followers, for helping us reach this milestone. We promise to continue to adapt to help you build your championship team, with the help of our island of misfit toys.
The Scout the Statline War Room
ROSS – Gentlemen, history is filled with almost. With those who almost adventured, who almost achieved, but ultimately, for them, it proved to be too much. Then there are others. The ones who embrace the moment and commit. And in these moments of truth, these men and women, these mere mortals just like you and me, as they peer over the edge, they calm their minds and steel their nerves with four simple words that have been whispered by the Intrepid since the time of the Romans…fortune favors the bold!
SHANKS – Wow! That was beautiful, boss.
RFF – Yeah it was, Jason Bourne. Why don’t you tell that bullshit to my parents who took their retirement and invested in Ethereum when it was at $4800.
CUP of JOE – Don’t worry…it will come back.
DOC EPP – The Angels have a better shot of Ohtani coming back.
MATT – No cap. And fellas if you want to make some real money, you need to look into Shiba Inu.
ROSS – Guys, we are getting off topic.
SHANKS – Is that the one with the cute dog?
MATT – One hundred. And it is only at a fraction of a penny right now!
SHANKS – So are you saying if I buy a billion of those doggy tokens and it will go to $4800!?! *pulls out his phone to use the calculator app*
RFF – Shanks, that isn’t going to happen.
JOE – Yeah, your money is safer in more reputable projects like Bitcoin, Ethereum, or SafeMoon.
DOC EPP – I thought the guys who ran Safemoon got arrested for stealing over $200 million?
MATT – Yeah, like half the Mets roster did this season. Boom! Am I right? *holds his hand up waiting for RFF to give him a high-five*
RFF – Matt, I’m an old man. I just want to be left alone. But, yeah, SafeMoon dropped over half its value after the news broke, Joe.
CUP of JOE – Good one, guys. *laughs nervously as he looks around the room while everyone sits in silence avoiding eye contact*
RFF – I’m sure your money is safe on the moon, Joe.
ROSS – Fellas! We are here to discuss who were the best MiLB players at each position this past season. The players whom our followers voted for, the 2023 Scout the Statline model picks, and our staff picks. We aren’t here to talk about crypto.
RFF – Well, to be fair you were the one who broke out that crypto commercial dialogue by Matt Damon and tried to pass it on as yours.
ROSS – I simply used it to exemplify where we are and where we are headed. We embraced the challenge of making a name for ourselves in the fantasy baseball world fifteen months ago. We weathered the storm and stayed on course. While frankly, others would have packed it in. And even though we have been successful thus far in this journey. We still have plenty of uncertainty ahead of us. But I know if we continue to face this adversity, together. We have what it takes in this room to reach the destination we are pursuing.
*Silence blankets the room with inaudible anticipation and excitement coming from everyone as if ready to erupt with the next word Ross says*
SHANKS – Oh my God! I can be a doggy token trillionaire!!
RFF – Well, I guess that is your cue, Ross. Do the honors, sir.
ROSS – Epperson, throw the First Base candidates into the Aggregate so you can walk me through the board.
FIRST BASEMEN
It was tough sledding for former first-round pick, Xavier Isaac starting his first professional season. In March, RFF wrote about the then 19-year-old first baseman and gave a different take on the biggest surprise pick of the first round in his Saved by the Staline FYPD piece.
Xavier Isaac from the Tampa Bay Rays was drafted 29th overall. This pick made every draft evaluator pull their hair out. I think every grade for this pick was either a D or F. Not because this kid is not talented or doesn’t have the potential to be an outstanding player. It is the Rays banking on a 19-year-old kid who only a few scouts knew much about because of an injury that kept him out of the showcase circuit. Those scouts and draft evaluators can question the pick, but if this kid hits his ceiling. You are looking at Ryan Howard with a mix of Dave Parker. He has an 80-grade raw power to all fields, and his hand speed is elite. His 6’4″ frame and 240 pounds at his age are AC Slater scary. He only played five games of ROK ball after getting drafted. He had 19 at-bats that netted four hits and a .211/.286/.654 line. Being in the Rays organization and not having much of a track record. I wouldn’t expect him to be in the majors for at least four years, but if the Rays are right (again), he can be worth the wait.
Through the end of May, Xavier Isaac was only hitting .234 but there were signs of life there that pointed to his process being sound, just not finding the results. While Isaac was struggling to find hits at the plate, he was walking more than striking out with 25 walks to 20 strikeouts. And as it happens so often in baseball, if you keep with the process, the results should follow. Back on May 22nd of this season, Ross highlighted this in his Prospect Highlights piece on the potential the “X-Factor” had even with his slow start.
The “X-Factor”, Xavier Isaac, is a towering 6’3 and 240 lb first baseman snagged by the Tampa Bay Rays in the 1st round of the 2022 MLB Draft straight out of East Forsyth High School in North Carolina. Despite limited power output so far, Isaac has started to make waves within the Rays’ minor league system.
Though Isaac had a quiet debut in the Rookie League in 2022, he’s shown substantial progress in 2023. Transitioning to Single-A, he has exhibited excellent plate discipline, amassing an impressive .437 OBP, walking more frequently than he has struck out (24:17) across 26 games with the Charleston RiverDogs. While he has only mustered 2 HRs and a .253 average, Isaac’s large frame and excellent eye hint at significant potential offensive growth.
The “X-Factor” is someone you want to keep a close eye on as he moves through the minor leagues for any breakouts. He’s a nice speculative add in deeper leagues right now.
From June until the end of the season, Isaac proved himself worthy of the trust that the Rays put into him being a first-round pick outside of their status quo, with an OPS of .965 with 16 home runs, and a somewhat surprising 11 stolen bases. With a 30-grade speed given by Fangraphs, no one can say that they expected Isaac to contribute in the steals category. What`s even more surprising is he was caught zero times, if he can continue chipping in double-digit steals it will only add to a profile that is quickly becoming a must-target in fantasy circles. For the year Isaac had a 21% strikeout rate to go along with a stellar 14% walk rate. Ross provided an update in his Prospect Highlights in July to Isaac’s progression.
July Update: We may be pivoting from ‘X-Factor’ to ‘Weapon X’ for a nickname here. Just so many possibilities! Isaac has been tremendous since our original highlight, I hope you were watching closely! I’ve been adding him where possible.
All in all, Isaac did exactly what he sought out to do this year. He has cemented himself as one of the top 40 prospects in the game and even more impressive he has made Ross’s Next Big Thing List.
Xavier Isaac
(The User Choice Winner)
.285/.395/.521, 19 HR, 12 SB
Just sneaking under the bar of prospect status, Nolan Schanuel vaulted over the minor leagues and landed squarely in the middle of a depleted Angel`s lineup this summer after being selected in the first round of this summer`s draft. Schanuel is the algorithm`s pick for the best 1B prospect as well as my own, probably for the same reasons. It`s one thing for a prospect to dominate an age-appropriate level, another to be a year or two below age-appropriate for a level, and then there`s Schanuel who at 21 has shown through 130 plate appearances that he belongs and is not overmatched.
The calling card for Schanuel is his knowledge of the strike zone and his ability to make solid contact with the ball due to his swing path leaving the barrel in the zone as long as possible and a penchant for spraying it to all fields equally (seriously, it’s almost exactly equal to all fields.) Although he didn’t record enough BBE (Batted Ball Events) to qualify, Schanuel boasted a 40% sweet spot rate which was top 40 in the league. His chase rate sat at 20% which is also elite, and when he decides to expand the strike zone? Schanuel shines and makes contact 72.7% of the time (the MLB average is 58%.) I would be remiss in my duties if I also didn’t mention the fact that Schanuel walked 20 times compared to only striking 19 freaking times as a 21-year-old rookie who barely had a taste of professional baseball.
There should be some caution with Schanuel however, for all the good he can do getting his bat on the ball, it’s often with little power. Dating back to college, Schanuel has never posted more than 20 home runs in a season and his brief stint in the Majors backs this up, his Average EV was 85.4mph which was 21st worst in the league (with 100 plate appearances) and he rarely barreled the ball at 2.2% of the time.
All of these numbers should of course be taken with a grain of salt because of the sample size, but they match up with his track record in college. I think there is more power in the bat than what we`ve seen so far, after all, he has only two professional home runs. As our fearless leader says “Power is usually the last thing to show” and that could be true with Schanuel more than most.
Nolan Schanuel Player Eval
Nolan Schanuel
(The StS & Staff Pick)
.275/.402/.330, 1 HR
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2023 STS MiLB Players of the Year: Second Base