2023 STS MiLB Players of the Year: Shortstop
Other Articles in this Series:
Analysis by Joe Simon-Rasmussen
Intro by RFF
“It is about getting things to one number.” This is the first line from a quote on the Scout the Statline About page from the movie “Moneyball” which I feel best encapsulates the vision that Ross Jensen and Jordan Rosenblum had when they created their website. This quasi-concept gave birth to “Peak Projections,” a statistical approach and formula that uses unbiased statistical data, historical equivalencies from MLB player comparisons, and an aging curve to predict a player’s performance at their very best. It was because of this pivotal innovation that you find yourself reading this sentence right now.
Since then, Scout the Statline has further immersed itself within the baseball community and taken into account their followers’ feedback. Alongside daily leaderboards and player evaluations, the platform has expanded its reach to include social media content, website periodicals, articles, a YouTube channel featuring the Bats & Stats podcast and player evaluation videos, and The Hobby Advantage for baseball card enthusiasts.
As we wrap up our first full season covering the realm of fantasy baseball, we present to you our highly anticipated MiLB Positional Players of the Year Prospectus. Over the next ten days, we will unveil the best prospects in each position, culminating in the announcement of the 2023 Scout the Statline MiLB Player of the Year.
We want to thank you, the followers, for helping us reach this milestone. We promise to continue to adapt to help you build your championship team, with the help of our island of misfit toys.
The Scout the Statline War Room
ROSS – Gentlemen, history is filled with almost…
SHANKS – Wow! That was beautiful, boss.
RFF – Yeah it was, Jason Bourne…
(…the crypto banter continues as usual…)
ROSS – Joe, throw the StS MiLB shortstop Player of the Year candidates into the Aggregate so you can walk me through the board.
JOE – Can I first call my wife about getting our life savings out of Safemoon?
ROSS – Focus, Joe! This is far more important!
JOE – Just that um my kids need to go to college but okay…
At Shortstop there’s really just no suspense — no matter who you ask, Jackson Holliday dominated the narrative at the position all year long at the minor league level. Holliday ran away with things among the StS writers, StS Twitter followers, and in the StS model itself.
I’ll dig into some other names in a bit since no one needs me to tell them that Jackson Holliday is awesome, but let’s take a minute to appreciate what he just did. Barely a year removed from sitting in calculus, Holliday made his way through all 4 levels of affiliated minor league ball, scoring 113 runs while getting on base at a .442 clip, hitting 12 home runs, and posting a 159 wRC+.
He launched himself to the top of almost every prospect list and is knocking on the door to the major leagues before he looks old enough to vote. Even though he received a strong vote of confidence from our StS overlord, Ross, on our Scout the Statline YouTube channel in the link below when questioned about Holliday back in July.
His first year or two in the big leagues could be a little underwhelming from a fantasy standpoint — the homers look like they’ll take a while to develop, he might not run that much, and it might take him a while to get to the top of a lineup. But Holliday looks like he’s got a very long career ahead of him, with a lengthy peak hitting for high averages and sky-high OBPs, scoring boatloads of runs, and likely delivering numerous 20-homer/20-steal campaigns.
If you haven’t figured it out by now, Holliday has been the poster child of Scout the Statline since its inception. So I’ll conclude with the very first Scout the Statline’s Player Highlights written by Ross back in March.
Jackson Holliday (SS, BAL-A)
Date: 3/30/23
Analysis by Ross Jensen
Peak Projections: .256/.438/.404, 13 HR, 14 SB, 25% BB%, 11% K%
Big 3 Rank: MLB – #12, BA – #15, BP – #9
Holliday, son of former major leaguer Matt Holliday, became a surprise selection over Druw Jones by the Baltimore Orioles at #1 overall in 2022. The Orioles clearly saw something in Holliday to justify the move. Early returns strongly suggest that they were on to something. Holliday’s debut was simply incredible, and at just 18 years old, he made quick work of the rookie level, posting a 1.167 OPS in 33 plate appearances, with one home run, while walking 5X more than he struck out (10 walks, 2 strikeouts). He was quickly promoted to Single-A, where the hitting came down to earth, but Holliday continued to demonstrate his superior eye and plate approach, with 15 walks to 10 strikeouts in another 57 plate appearances.
In spring training, it has been more of the same. Holliday just knows how to hit and get on base. The plate approach is as promising as I have ever seen in a new professional, and with slight power development, we’re looking at the top prospect in baseball. Yes, he’s already highly ranked. Yes, he will cost you a pretty penny. However, we’re talking about someone who could very well be the #1 overall prospect by this time next season. This is very likely the most affordable he will ever be.
May Update: I’ve seen enough. Holliday will be your #1 prospect by 2024!
August Update: Nothing new to say here other than Holliday became the game’s top prospect much faster than anticipated.
I’ll quickly touch on another MiLB SS Player of the Year candidate and Scout the Statline darling, Cole Young, who was also drafted in the first round of the 2022 draft (21st overall) out of high school. Young has been rocketing up everyone’s boards this year after putting up strong numbers in both A and High-A ball at the age of 19. He has sneaky pop and has shown an above-average contact rate that should keep him at the top of the rankings next season. Ross has been enamored with Young since his debut and talks about him in the Bats & Stats podcast in the link below.
Another high school shortstop drafted in the first round from the 2022 draft, the Mets’ Jett Williams, flashed upside as high as just about any prospect in the minors. Across 122 games, he stole 45 bases with a .425 OBP while also providing solid evidence that believers in his power coming out of the draft may have been right. He didn’t keep up with Lazaro Montes or anything, but he did show a respectable 13 homers with a .188 isolated slugging. If he can continue to optimize his swing for launch without sacrificing average, he could be a 15 home run, 40+ steal guy.
Williams currently possesses an average hit tool which adds a lot more risk than you’ll find in Holliday, but there are some similarities in the profile as far as the categories you hope they’ll stand out in. Advice to trade for a prospect who just had a good season often feels unrealistic, but Williams looks like a top-25 prospect to me. Oh and one last bit of advice, don’t invest in a cryptocurrency that has the word “safe” in the name.