The 2024 StS MiLB Player of the Year: First Base

By: RFF – Ryan Felix Fernandes

Scout the Statline has had one clear objective since its inception three years ago: to help YOU, our followers gain a strategic advantage in the ever-changing world of fantasy baseball. We achieve this through our advanced predictive data model, which analyzes players and prospects of various ages and levels using extensive research known as Peak Projections. This model incorporates MLB equivalencies and aging curves in its calculations, allowing us to project future statistical outcomes for thousands of players based on their current performances on a daily basis.

With that said, we invite you to join us on our victory lap for the 2024 season as we celebrate our success in identifying the top MiLB prospects in the game today as our talented writers recap the winners of the Player of the Year award at each position, determined by our User poll (via Twitter/X), the Scout the Statline Staff, and our Peak Projections Model.

Analysis by RFF

Yeah, sorry you got stuck with me with the recap of the First Base Player of the Year Award.

So, if you haven’t closed out the window to this piece, I want you to do me a favor and think back to your Little League days. Specifically to the first practice of the year in which the coaches determined what positions everyone on your team would play that season. Chances are, first base was handed to the kid who you initially mistaken for a coach because he looked ten years older than everyone on the team. You know, the kid. He already had peach fuzz on his face, always had a wad of Big League Chew that puffed one side of his cheeks, and could bench the Geo Metro he drove to practice.

Well, as we go over the candidates for the StS First Baseman Player of the Year, you will see the characteristics are pretty much the same to play this position at the highest level.

XAVIER ISAAC – TAMPA BAY RAYS

First, I want to start with MY guy. I know he didn’t perform this season to warrant being the Player of the Year at the position and the odds are that he won’t even be a regular at first base when he reaches the majors with Tre’ Morgan being the superior player defensively. But, I believe that Isaac will be the best fantasy player of this group and since I’m writing this I am going to state my case.

So Isaac, aka Big Pookie was the 2023 Twitter/X User poll winner and had the most helium at the position at this time last year. So why did he receive only 16% of the vote this time around on the Twitter/X poll and only one vote (by me) in the Staff this time around?

Well, to be blunt… he struck out a LOT more… like a pile of stinking POO-kie more. Yeah, sorry but I had to do that.

Of course, this is expected from a young hitter when he moves up above Single-A ball. But, the drastic jump in K% was a bit eye-popping. In 2023, he struck out at a 21.3% clip in 432 plate appearances (376 PAs – Single A and 57 PAs in High-A) which isn’t too bad but that ballooned up to 30.1% (302 PAs in High-A) and blew up to 40.6% (133 PAs in Double-A) to finish his 2024 season. His power numbers were still par for the course from last season but with the compound of striking out more frequently and taking less walks resulted in a BB/K ratio of 0.39 in High-A and 0.41 in Double-A this season. It wasn’t pretty, especially when compared to ratios he put up last year which was 0.70 in Single-A and 0.67 in High-A.

From the tape I’ve seen of him this season, the hitting mechanics haven’t changed since he was at East Forsyth High School. He and the Rays didn’t make any type of adjustments during his struggles in the 2024 season. This was probably because this was his first taste of adversity in his pro career and didn’t want to pile too much on his plate mid-season for the 20 year old.

In the box, Big Pookie is known for his open stance with his front foot using a low stride inward as his timing mechanism. It is an extra step because he needs to align his feet. At that point he relied on somewhat of a quasi toe tap to help drive his front foot which in my opinion doesn’t generate a ton of torque from his hips and lower body. But you couldn’t argue with the results till this past season. It almost looked like his upper and lower body mechanics look disjointed because he got fooled a lot with the off-speed stuff. If you asked me it looks like Isaac relied heavily on his upper body strength and lightning fast hands to get to him to this point. And if I’m even slightly right about that, I’m sure every pitcher he faced knew that too.

Interestingly, yesterday (10/7/24) was the first day of the AFL and this popped up on my YouTube feed. The side angle might be deceiving me but it looks like Isaac closed his stance a bit and is using a more accentuated front foot stride that should generate a ton more torque from his hips and lower body. I know it is just one swing but his upper and lower body looks more in sync at the point of contact.

Video Credit to the @ProspectsWorldWide YouTube channel

Regardless if he made an adjustment or not, don’t be surprised with Isaac’s natural talent and hitting repertoire this kid possesses and an acclimation to a higher level of pitching with a full season under his belt. He will be the First Baseman Player of the Year and a StS darling this time next year.

Final Random Thought: I racked my brain trying to think of power hitters that had an open stance and the first guy that popped in my head was Tony Batista and if you ever saw him hit you know he was an outlier. But then I remembered that Derek Lee used an open stance his entire career and was one of the best hitters of his generation.

CJ KAYFUS – CLEVELAND GUARDIANS

This kid looks to be the epitome of a professional hitter and is quite possibly one of the most polished hitters in MiLB. He can go oppo and pull the ball consistently and with solid contact. He reminds me a lot of Mark Grace with his approach. Kayfus is relaxed at the plate with quiet mechanics that makes it easy for him to repeat his swing. What catapulted him up the Fantasy Dynasty Rankings this season was his display of a better power tool by knocking 17 HRs between High and Double-A. His slash line in High-A was ridiculous with a .338/.437/.578/.1015 in 117 PAs that led to a promotion to Double-A. He came back down to Earth with a .263/.366/.470/.836 line in 287 PAs.

For such an athletic kid, he doesn’t flash much speed when it comes to stolen bases with only five this season but he does possess an above-average run tool. He is a candidate to move away from the three spot on the field when he reaches the majors with Kyle Manzardo entrenched there and his above-average fielding tool along with the aforementioned above-average athletic and speed tools.

DEYVISON DE LOS SANTOS – MIAMI MARLINS

I thought De Los Santos wouldn’t have done as well as he did in the polls with some of the red flags he had towards the end of the season but I can’t deny the jaw-dropping Statcast and power numbers he put up. The start of his ’24 season in which he had a .372/.426/.696/1.122 slash line in Double-A with 14 HRs and a .418 BABIP is just ridiculous. He also cut his K% by 3.8% during that span. At the midway part of the season, he led all of MiLB in HRs, Total Bases, and RBIs.

So naturally, the Diamondbacks trade him at the deadline to the Miami Marlins where good hitting prospects flounder. Get it… Marlins, flounder… C’mon they are both fish!

It was a tale of two seasons as you can see from these numbers:

• He had a .289/.338/.588/.926 line with 14 HRs in 194 at-bats with the Reno Aces (Diamondbacks Triple-A affiliate)
• He finished 2024 with a .240/.284/.459/.743 line with 12 HRs in 196 at-bats with the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp (Marlins Triple-A affiliate)

Now you have to question if the benefit of hitting in the high altitude out in Reno skewed his numbers. All in all, De Los Santos still has some of the top Exit Velocities in MiLB but a putrid strikeout rate and surprisingly high ground ball rate (49.7% at Reno and 53.3% at Jax) are fishy to me. C’mon, I know you laughed at that one.

MODEL WINNER – TRE’ MORGAN – TAMPA BAY RAYS

It really seemed like the Tampa Bay Rays brass sought out to find The Bizarro Xavier Isaac or at least the antithesis of him when they drafted Tre’ Morgan last year.

Tre’ bunts, Xavier bombs.
Tre’ is a Gold Glover, Xavier fields more like the 78 year old actor Danny Glover.
Tre’ is textbook in the box, Xavier is outside the box with his open stance at the plate.
Tre’ chokes up to make contact, Xavier will choke a bitch. Kidding. Just making sure you are paying attention.

Peak Projections First Baseman Results for 2024

What stuck out to me when watching the tape of Tre’ Morgan in the box was his extraordinary bat-to-ball skills along with a sweet Joe Morgan elbow twitch he implements in his hitting mechanics. It really is a thing of beauty.

As we all know, Peak Projections are strictly about the numbers. And Tre’ put up some impressive ones especially in High-A where he spent most of the 2024 season. In 223 PAs he struck out only 18 times and compiled 26 walks with 10 stolen bases. He had a slash line of .371/.447/.558/1.005 during this span. He did take a huge step back in Double-A with a .211/.322/.242/.664 line in 88 PAs but with his impressive track record as an amateur at LSU, excellent hitting mechanics, and his bat-to-ball skills, he should overcome this hiccup. Will he be the next Luis Arraez? I doubt it. Maybe more like Xavier Edwards-ish? That’s good… right?

STAFF AND USER WINNER – BRYCE ELDRIDGE – SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS

So this tall drink of water is literally head and shoulders above everyone else at the first base position in 2024. If you didn’t get that then why do I try?

What can I say about Eldridge that hasn’t been said yet?
He mashed.

You want more?

Fine. First and foremost, he had a stellar .289/.372/.513 line with 23 HRs and 90 RBIs with 27 doubles, 2 triples, and 6 stolen bases. And he also accomplished those numbers across all four levels. He does strike out at a less than ideal clip with a K% that hovered around 25%. But it wasn’t anything to worry about till he reached Triple-A but that was a tall task to ask for from a kid in his first pro season.

On tape there were a few instances that Eldridge got fooled a few times by the off-speed and breaking stuff but was still able to make solid contact because of his natural ability.

He has a crisp swing that is tailor made to consistently hit at a 20-plus launch angle with his long limbs. Outside of a toe tap, he is quiet in the box and everything else with his swing mechanics flows well so he will be able to replicate it consistently when he goes against MLB-level type pitching.

And did I forget to mention, this kid is only 19 years old and this was his first season that he strictly focused only on hitting. With the impressive numbers he put up to go with those two factors, his ceiling is as high as any prospect out there which will only help this Sasquatch not hurt his head. Yeah, I couldn’t think of anything better to close this out.