The 2024 STS MiLB Player of the Year: Outfield

Analysis: Matt Morris
Intro: RFF

2024 MILB OUTFIELDER OF THE YEAR

Hey, how you doing today?

You reached out to us about fantasy baseball analysis with huge upside potential with very little downside risk. Does that ring a bell? Okay, great.

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The name of this analysis is “The POY Awards.” It is a rundown of cutting-edge analysis out of Scout the Statline, awaiting imminent fantasy manager approval for a new generation of ranking MiLB prospects and MLB players that have both redraft and dynasty applications now… right now, for free. But the proprietary model that goes by the name of Peak Projections that helped put this all together, trades for only $5.00 a month. And by the way, all of their content should go for a heck of a lot higher.

This $5.00 investment will only take you upwards in the standings to league champion. Did I just say, you will finally win your league and stop losing year after year? Exactly, you can finally stop losing and missing out on the next elite hitting or pitching prospect.

The one thing we can promise you even in this evolving fantasy baseball market is that we never ask our followers to judge us only on our winners. We ask them to judge us on our losers because we have so few.

Here at Scout the Statline, we often joke that pitching stocks serves as the perfect metaphor for what we do. Think about it: we share the same lingo — hot, cold, bust, risers, fallers, and helium. They use a five-star system to assess a company, we utilize a five-tool system to evaluate a prospect. Not convinced? Here’s the clincher: both of us are tasked with predicting whether someone’s stock will go up or down.

All jokes aside, since 2021, Scout the Statline has had one clear objective: to help you, our followers gain a strategic advantage in the ever-changing world of fantasy baseball. We achieve this through our advanced predictive data model, which analyzes players and prospects of various ages and levels using extensive research known as Peak Projections. This model incorporates MLB equivalencies and aging curves in its calculations, allowing us to project future statistical outcomes for thousands of players based on their current performances on a daily basis.

With that said, we invite you to join us on our victory lap for the 2024 season as we celebrate our success in identifying the top MiLB prospects in the game today. Our talented writers will recap the winners of the Player of the Year award at each position, determined by our User poll (via Twitter/X), the Scout the Statline Staff, and our Peak Projections model.

In contrast to 2023, where we had a unanimous winner across all three categories, the 2024 awards present a more diverse landscape. Last year, Wyatt Langford dominated the competition, earning accolades as the Scout the Statline Model Winner, the Staff Pick, and the Reader’s Choice in the X Poll. While the 2024 Top 100 may not boast the same star power we’ve come to expect, the outfield position remains a notable area of strength.

Today, we highlight seven nominated names and honor two outstanding outfield prospects with the Minor League Baseball (MILB) Player of the Year awards.

Chandler Simpson – Tampa Bay Rays

While it’s tempting to compare Chandler Simpson to last year’s speedster Victor Scott, they are fundamentally different players. Simpson began 2024 at High-A before quickly advancing to Double-A, where he showcased elite speed and exceptional contact skills at both levels. Power is not part of his profile and likely never will be — but his skill set can still thrive (see: Xavier Edwards). Expect a mid-2025 debut if he keeps running wild.

Walker Jenkins – Minnesota Twins

After just one at-bat in pro ball, Jenkins suffered a hamstring strain that cost him six weeks. The stat line looks modest, but the plate discipline, projectable power, and hit tool are all still there. The model loves him — I think he can beat the projection.

Emmanuel Rodriguez – Minnesota Twins

60-grade hit and power. Brandon Lowe is the current comp — likely the floor. Injuries have been the only thing holding him back. If he stays healthy in 2025, expect a big-league debut and top-15 overall prospect status.

Robert Calaz – Colorado Rockies

Age-18 season stateside: .349/.462/.651, 10 HR, 12 SB in the ACL → promoted to Low-A and kept raking. If he keeps this up in 2025, top-10 overall prospect by season’s end is very realistic.

Lazaro Montes – Seattle Mariners

Montes answered every question in 2024. Elite power, improved hit tool, and the plate discipline of a veteran. The model sees prime Yordan Álvarez comps (30 HR, 137 wRC+). I see Christian Yelich with faster power development.

THE STS PEAK PROJECTIONS MODEL WINNER

Jasson Domínguez – New York Yankees

65 hit / 55 power / 60 run. MLB experience already in the bank. Tommy John + oblique injury limited 2024, but the model still says he’s the clear #1 OF prospect. Expect an above-average regular very soon.

THE STS STAFF & X USER POLL WINNER

Roman Anthony – Boston Red Sox

Roman Anthony ran away with both the staff vote and the X poll — and for good reason. Elite exit velos (90th percentile 108.4 mph), massive raw power, and a rapidly improving hit tool. He may not show his final form until the big leagues, but when he gets there, watch out.

X poll: