The 2024 StS MiLB Player of the Year: Shortstop

Analysis: Darren “Doc” Eisenhauer
Intro: RFF

Scout the Statline has had one clear objective since its inception three years ago: to help YOU, our followers gain a strategic advantage in the ever-changing world of fantasy baseball. We achieve this through our advanced predictive data model, which analyzes players and prospects of various ages and levels using extensive research known as Peak Projections. This model incorporates MLB equivalencies and aging curves in its calculations, allowing us to project future statistical outcomes for thousands of players based on their current performances on a daily basis.

With that said, we invite you to join us on our victory lap for the 2024 season as we celebrate our success in identifying the top MiLB prospects in the game today as our talented writer, Darren “Doc” Eisenhauer recaps the MiLB Player of the Year Shortstop category and reveals which player finished on top of the Peak Projections Model Rankings at the position. As well as the winners of the Scout the Statline Staff poll and The X User poll that was determined by you!

Analysis by Darren “Doc” Eisenhauer

Shortstop is the most critical position on the diamond, and that also makes it one of the trickiest spots to judge when it comes to our fantasy game.

If a guy has always been his team’s best player — and if he’s one of MLB’s top prospects, then he most likely was — then chances are he’s played some shortstop in his life.

That means that shortstop ranks are often stacked coming out of college, high school, and international signing pools, but get thinned out in a hurry when brought into a professional organization.

What happens next is often the opposite of 1B prospects: the prospect is such a good fielder that we can see them being tried out at SS, 2B, 3B, and sometimes even center field!

This is all to say that although it seems these guys could all play shortstop for some major league teams, that may change in the future.

Heck, some of these guys are classified by StS’s Peak Projections model as second basemen, but their defense has proven so solid that they’re being given more opportunity at SS after all.

While we didn’t have a clean sweep of all 3 Prospect of the Year nominations, Kevin McGonigle of the Detroit Tigers took two out of the three wins!

Here’s what our model thinks about the top dogs and their statistical outlook:

Some flashy names up there, but McGonigle still claimed the #1 spot among SS (and 2B) this year — even managing to finish as the #3 overall prospect!

I’m happy for this kid. While Max Clark (my Indiana prospect crush) received the lion’s share of hype from the Tigers’ 2023 draft class, Kevin McGonigle was largely overlooked after being taken with the 37th pick.

This is why it’s important to look at the signing bonus, folks!

The Professor (yes, this is a Harry Potter reference) landed a splashy 2.85 million dollar bonus, putting him ahead of 23rd overall pick Ralphy Velazquez in terms of draft day cash.

Whenever I see moves like that, I dig a little deeper.

In this case, it seemed like K-Mac (yes, I just made that one up) was a prototypical middle-infielder, reporting in at a frame of 5’10, 187 lbs. The profile seemed to be a strong hit tool, along with good defense, nice speed, and sneaky potential for more pop.

Well, that’s pretty much what we saw this year.

McGonigle walked 46 times to 28 strikeouts, providing a .309 batting average to go along with a powerful .401 OBP, which pairs nicely with his 22 stolen bases in 74 games.

The only drawback? Power.

Despite flashing some decent exit velo’s, McGonigle only gave us 5 home runs in those 74 games this season, and that’s not going to get a ton of fantasy GMs excited.

If you’re an optimist, then you understand that power is often the last piece to develop from some prospects — and you also understand that it’s a lot harder to teach an elite hit tool than it is to develop that power.

But the downside risk here is that K-Mac becomes a better real-life player than fantasy asset, providing something like a .280/.350 line, 25 stolen bases, and maybe 10 home runs. Good, but not great.

However, if this kid can hit the weight room and learn to start pulling fly balls, then we can have some real fun.

I don’t think it’s crazy to say that Kevin McGonigle could have a peak season featuring a .300 batting average in MLB, and 30 SB is far from out of the question, either. He doesn’t actually have elite speed, but does seem to be willing to run.

With a future lineup of promising bats like Kerry Carpenter, Riley Greene, Parker Meadows, Jace Jung, Max Clark (and maybe Spencer Torkelson figures out how to consistently play baseball), there is some high potential for The Professor to generate 100 runs atop a fun fantasy lineup.

The model seems to agree!

Our StS staff, on the other hand, had mixed feelings:

They left me all alone on McGonigle island!

Here’s the thing: the award is not for “Max Upside Prospect”, it’s for the Prospect of the Year.

While LDV certainly has my vote for most upside, he also came into this season with a ton of hype. Some folks had him as a top-15 overall prospect before 2024 even started!

So, while his power and speed were highly impressive as a 17 year-old in A ball, he still had a .238 batting average — and for me, that doesn’t hold a candle to McGonigle’s elite hitting display.

K-Mac was only on two top-100 rankings across the entire industry at the beginning of 2024 (Baseball Prospectus and yours truly), so that also adds some power to his campaign.

Ross Jensen, our head honcho, went with Jacob Wilson as his PoY. This one makes a lot of sense to me, since the underrated 6th overall pick from the ‘23 draft rocketed through the minors with a .433(!!!) batting average this season.

That earned him a trip to the big leagues, where he performed adequately for 28 games.

But here’s the thing: he’s like Kevin McGonigle without the upside. Or maybe: White Luis Arraez?!

Maybe that nickname won’t stick, but it seems to be an accurate fantasy prediction for Mr. Wilson. He provides essentially no power or speed, just a nice glove and an unbelievable hit tool. Great real-life asset, but pretty much a one-trick pony for fantasy teams.

Lastly, Brian Shanks stood alone with Franklin Arias — a fun young gun with the Boston Red Sox organization. While I can appreciate the dynamic upside of the 18 year-old, I think there was enough of a drop-off at A-ball to take him out of consideration as Shortstop of the Year.

While 5 SBs in 36 games is fine, it’s a far cry from the 30 in 51 games he gave us in rookie ball! Again, a very fun long-term play — but he ain’t my guy in 2024.

But enough about us Big-Brained Experts…

…how did the people’s vote shake out?!

I’m not gonna lie: y’all surprised me on our X poll!

I fully expected a Leo De Vries runaway because of all his hype, but Kevin McGonigle squeaked it out!

As you can probably tell by this point, I think this is the right outcome.

LDV had a superb debut for such a raw international prospect, and Jacob Wilson displayed a supernatural hitting ability…

…but this was Kevin McGonigle’s brilliant breakout year.

While the Tigers will likely slow-roll both K-Mac and Max Clark next season, it seems likely both will end up in AA before long — and at that point, a big league call-up is never too far away!