Hobby Advantage Buy/Sell: Justin Lamkin and Welbyn Francisca Lead the 30-Day Movers
HOBBY ADVANTAGE: BUY/SELL INDEX
Non-debuted prospect Base Autos, market price vs. OOPSY expected price, as of 11/13/2026
Welbyn Francisca’s 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Base Auto more than doubled over the past 30 days, from $27.22 to $61.47, while OOPSY’s expected price for it is $23.65. On the other side of the board, Justin Lamkin’s 2025 Bowman Draft 1st Base Auto climbed 43%, from about $9.50 to $13.62, and no buy on this week’s index moved further. It still sits well short of its $20.98 expected price. One card has run far past what its projection supports. The other is still catching up. The Buy/Sell Index exists to surface gaps like those. It checks live 1st Bowman Base Auto sales for every non-debuted prospect against the expected price implied by how comparable prospects are priced against their STS OOPSY Peak projections: well below is a buy, well above is a sell. This week’s lens is the biggest 30-day price moves among cards that carry a buy or sell signal, as of 11/13/2026.
Sell Signals Lead Buys 99 to 50
Of 1,302 non-debuted Base Autos on the board, 50 flash a buy signal (47 of them strong buys) and 99 flash a sell (77 strong sells). The other 1,153 cards sit on hold, with no strong signal either way (some have no current price at all). That is almost exactly two sells for every buy, so more cards trade above their expected price than below it.
Five Buys on the Move, Led by Lamkin
Four strong buys and one buy make the list. Each one moved at least 10% over the past 30 days, and they are listed by the size of that move, with prices from today’s Hobby Advantage snapshot. Two of the five got cheaper while their expected prices stayed well above them, which is the kind of move a buyer wants to see. Cards featured in any of the last three editions sit out the full write-ups; the leaders among them are under Still on the Board below. One more strong buy worth knowing: today’s Prospect of the Day, Anthony Eyanson, has a 2025 Bowman Draft 1st Base Auto selling for $50.74 against a $105.97 expected price.
| Player | Card | Current | Expected | Gap | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Lamkin | 2025 Bowman Draft 1st Base Auto | $13.62 | $20.98 | +$7.36 | Strong Buy |
| Ryan Clifford | 2023 Bowman 1st Base Auto | $11.46 | $28.39 | +$16.93 | Strong Buy |
| Joshua Báez | 2022 Bowman 1st Base Auto | $70.96 | $102 | +$31.04 | Buy |
| Emmanuel Rodriguez | 2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Base Auto | $33.36 | $74.83 | +$41.47 | Strong Buy |
| Enddy Azocar | 2026 Bowman Chrome 1st Base Auto | $25.13 | $38.63 | +$13.50 | Strong Buy |
Lamkin, a Royals starter, is the only pitcher among the five buys. His 43% run has not closed the gap: the $20.98 expected price still sits 54% above the $13.62 card. Lamkin carries 2.3 Peak WAR, a 50 overall grade and the No. 336 hobby rank.
Ryan Clifford’s card is the cheapest of the five buys at $11.46, up from about $8.38 a month ago, and OOPSY’s expected price sits 148% above it, the widest percentage gap in the group. The Mets outfielder adds 1.8 Peak WAR, a 40 overall grade and the No. 116 hobby rank.
Joshua Báez’s card went the other way. It opened the 30 days near $108 and has slid to $70.96, still the priciest of the five buys, while the $102 expected price now sits 44% above it. The discount has grown, not shrunk. The Cardinals outfielder brings 3.1 Peak WAR, a 55 overall grade and the No. 29 hobby rank.
Emmanuel Rodriguez, the Twins outfielder (not to be confused with Cardinals catcher Rainiel Rodriguez below), has the largest dollar gap of the five at $41.47. His card rose from about $25.85 a month ago to $33.36, and the expected price still sits 124% above it. Behind the card: 3.9 Peak WAR, a 60 overall grade and the No. 40 hobby rank.
Enddy Azocar’s card has dropped from about $32.13 to $25.13 over the past 30 days, so a buyer now pays less for a bigger discount: $25.13 against a $38.63 expected price, a 54% gap. The Orioles outfielder brings 2.5 Peak WAR, a 55 overall grade and the No. 129 hobby rank.
Welbyn Francisca More Than Doubles and Leads the Sells
Every sell this week carries a strong-sell band, and four of the five are shortstops. Each one moved at least 10% over the past 30 days, and they are listed by the size of that move, with prices from today’s Hobby Advantage snapshot. If one of these is in your collection, this is the kind of price worth thinking about cashing in.
| Player | Card | Current | Expected | Gap | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Welbyn Francisca | 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Base Auto | $61.47 | $23.65 | -$37.82 | Strong Sell |
| Tai Peete | 2023 Bowman Draft 1st Base Auto | $45.84 | $17.82 | -$28.02 | Strong Sell |
| Joshua Kuroda-Grauer | 2024 Bowman Draft 1st Base Auto | $18.93 | $5.78 | -$13.15 | Strong Sell |
| Jared Thomas | 2024 Bowman Draft 1st Base Auto | $17.58 | $6.41 | -$11.17 | Strong Sell |
| Kayson Cunningham | 2025 Bowman Draft 1st Base Auto | $17.03 | $9.91 | -$7.12 | Strong Sell |
Francisca is the biggest mover on either side of the board. The Guardians shortstop’s card has gone from $27.22 a month ago to $61.47, and its $23.65 expected price now sits 62% below where it trades. That $37.82 gap is the largest of the five sells. The rest of the profile: 2.7 Peak WAR, a 55 overall grade and the No. 191 hobby rank.
Tai Peete, a Cardinals shortstop, has the second-biggest run on the sell side, from about $30.22 a month ago to $45.84. That leaves the $17.82 expected price 61% below the card, and the gap is widening. Behind the card: 1.8 Peak WAR, a 40 overall grade and the No. 239 hobby rank.
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer’s card has already been cut nearly in half, from about $35.57 a month ago to $18.93, and it is still a strong sell. The Athletics shortstop’s $5.78 expected price sits 69% below the card, the steepest percentage gap on the sell side. He brings 1.7 Peak WAR, a 40 overall grade and the No. 418 hobby rank.
Jared Thomas carries the lowest Peak WAR of the five at 0.6, yet the Rockies outfielder’s card has climbed from about $12.67 a month ago to $17.58. The $6.41 expected price sits 64% below it. He has a 30 overall grade and the No. 430 hobby rank.
Kayson Cunningham, a Diamondbacks shortstop, has the cheapest card of the five at $17.03 after sliding from about $24.01 a month ago, but the $9.91 expected price still sits 42% below it. Cunningham adds 1.5 Peak WAR, a 40 overall grade and the No. 373 hobby rank.
Still on the Board
These board leaders were featured in one of the last three editions, so they sit out the full write-ups this week. Here is how their prices and gaps have moved since.
- Lazaro Montes (Buy, last featured 11/6, 2023 Bowman 1st Base Auto): $62.94 then, $51.25 now, and the dollar gap went from $159 to $171.
- Eli Willits (Buy, last featured 11/6, 2025 Bowman Draft 1st Base Auto): still $151, and the gap is unchanged at $113.
- Rainiel Rodriguez (Buy, last featured 11/6, 2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Base Auto): still $136, and the gap is unchanged at $104.
- Jesus Made (Sell, last featured 11/6, 2025 Bowman 1st Base Auto): $304 then, $312 now, and the dollar gap went from $197 to $205.
- Josue De Paula (Sell, last featured 11/6, 2023 Bowman 1st Base Auto): $255 then, $240 now, and the dollar gap went from $161 to $146.
- Seth Hernandez (Sell, last featured 11/6, 2025 Bowman Draft 1st Base Auto): still $169, and the gap is unchanged at $117.
Big Gaps to Check Before You Act
Each of these cards shows a strong signal and a data quirk. They are listed for completeness, not as recommendations.
- Luke Adams, 2024 Bowman 1st Base Auto: $20.14 vs. $116 expected (Strong Buy), but the gap (+477%) is extreme.
- Seong-Jun Kim, 2026 Bowman 1st Base Auto: $86.03 vs. $7.13 expected (Strong Sell), but the gap (-92%) is extreme; hobby rank is only No. 533.
- Shotaro Morii, 2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Base Auto: $45.13 vs. $5.82 expected (Strong Sell), but hobby rank is only No. 624.
- Wandy Asigen, 2026 Bowman Chrome 1st Base Auto: $39.18 vs. $8.85 expected (Strong Sell), but hobby rank is only No. 502.
Spotlight: Nationals Prospects Carry Four Buy Signals
Nationals prospects account for four buy signals and one sell signal this week, across four different players. Biggest discounts: Travis Sykora ($29.19 vs. $73.14 expected), Jarlin Susana ($47.36 vs. $83.67 expected) and Miguel Sime Jr. ($19.42 vs. $47.61 expected).
Keep Digging
Every card on the Buy/Sell Index, with live prices, price history and the full signal list, is on the Hobby Advantage page. STS members get the full tool, including watchlists and the cards you own. Become a member. Check back next week for the next read.