Scout the Statline

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Scout the Statline

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  • Peak Projections
  • Leaderboards
    • BaGS (Pitcher DIGS)
    • DIGS (Pitcher DIGS)
    • PLFR (Prospect Larceny)
    • 2022 Prospect Leaderboard
    • 2022 Prospect Hot List
    • Prospect Plate Discipline
    • Predictive wOBA Board
    • Top Projected by Year
    • Best Projected Since 2006
  • Member Exclusive Content
    • Peak Projections: Members
    • Player Highlights
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    • NCAA BAGS & Grades
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    • Home
    • About
    • Peak Projections
    • Leaderboards
      • BaGS (Pitcher DIGS)
      • DIGS (Pitcher DIGS)
      • PLFR (Prospect Larceny)
      • 2022 Prospect Leaderboard
      • 2022 Prospect Hot List
      • Prospect Plate Discipline
      • Predictive wOBA Board
      • Top Projected by Year
      • Best Projected Since 2006
    • Member Exclusive Content
      • Peak Projections: Members
      • Player Highlights
      • MiLB Hitter Grades
      • NCAA BAGS & Grades
      • Top 10 Prospects by Org
      • Top Prospects by Position
      • Yearly Projections
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  • Home
  • About
  • Peak Projections
  • Leaderboards
    • BaGS (Pitcher DIGS)
    • DIGS (Pitcher DIGS)
    • PLFR (Prospect Larceny)
    • 2022 Prospect Leaderboard
    • 2022 Prospect Hot List
    • Prospect Plate Discipline
    • Predictive wOBA Board
    • Top Projected by Year
    • Best Projected Since 2006
  • Member Exclusive Content
    • Peak Projections: Members
    • Player Highlights
    • MiLB Hitter Grades
    • NCAA BAGS & Grades
    • Top 10 Prospects by Org
    • Top Prospects by Position
    • Yearly Projections
  • Articles & Analysis
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  • Community
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SCOUT THE STATLINE

What are we?

Scout the Statline is a baseball-enthusiast site designed to provide actionable, up-to-date intel on MLB players and prospects.  Leveraging research on major league equivalencies and aging curves, we have built predictive data models that analyze players and prospects at different ages and across levels.  As a result of this novel approach, we can project future statistical output based on current performances and instantly rank thousands of players without bias.  No more waiting for the next top players list release, at Scout the Statline you will find lists updated daily, adapting every day to new information from the previous day's results.


Our site is designed with dynasty-style fantasy baseball players in mind, but general baseball fans will also find invaluable information within our pages.

Learn More

Visit the Helpful Links & Articles section found at the bottom of the Articles & Analysis page to learn more about our background and methodology.

Helpful Links & Articles

 "It’s about getting things down to one number. Using the stats the way we read them, we’ll find value in players that no one else can see. People are overlooked for a variety of biased reasons and perceived flaws. Age, appearance, personality…mathematics cut straight through that…of the 20,000 notable players for us to consider, I believe that there is a championship team of twenty-five people that we can afford, because everyone else in baseball undervalues them.
 

Like an island of misfit toys."


-Peter Brand, the Moneyball movie

Peak Projections Explained

An Overview

Major league equivalencies take data from the minor leagues and translate it to Major League level, based on how player performance has translated historically.


Aging curves are based on the developmental trajectory that an average Major League Baseball player follows.


Peak major league equivalencies, or simply peak projections, combine the two to project a player's predicted peak production.


By building peak projections, we are able to view what all players will look like at their very best based on what they are actually doing on the field now.  This statistical approach eliminates bias from player evaluation and allows us to shine a spotlight on high-rising and underrated players.

Scout the Statline Site Sections

Expand to learn more

Purpose: The Top Projected Hitters list functions as Scout the Statline's version of a top dynasty players list.


Attributes/Features: The Top Projected Hitters list uses past performance data and research on aging curves and minors-to-majors translations to produce future projections. Each player is assigned a rank based on these projections. 

  • All projections scaled up to a player's expected peak production
  • Current expected production displayed for post-peak players 
  • 500 professional plate appearances are required for hitters (MLB/MiLB combined) 
  • 99 innings pitched required for pitchers (MLB/MiLB combined)
  • Contains data from the last 4 years
  • Data weight: 5x current year, 4x prior year, 3x 2 years prior, 2x 3 years prior
  • Rank based on regressed projections, 80% wRC+, 20% SB/600 for hitters
  • Rank based on regressed projections peak xFIP for pitchers


Use: This list is designed to help you find overlooked or under-valued talent compared with more traditional top players lists.


Update Cadence: Daily for members, periodically for non-members


Purpose: The Top Projected Prospect list functions as Scout the Statline's version of a top dynasty prospects list.


Attributes/Features: The Top Projected Prospects list uses past performance data and research on aging curves and minors-to-majors translations to produce future projections. Each player is assigned a rank based on these projections. All methodology is the same as found in the Top Projected Hitters/Pitchers lists, however, there is a slight variance in the prospect rankings due to the following unique attributes.

  • 200 MiLB plate appearances above DSL required (as opposed to 500) for hitters
  • 49 MiLB innings above DSL required (as opposed to 99) for pitchers
  • Players under 500 plate appearances receive a slight extra regression penalty
  • Players under 120 innings pitched receive a slight extra regression penalty
  • Contains historical comps based on a correlation between past careers and projections (hitting prospects list only)


Use: This list is designed to help you find overlooked or under-valued talent compared to traditional top prospects lists.


Update Cadence: Daily for members, periodically for non-members


Purpose: Like the Top Projected Hitters and Top Projected Prospects lists, the 2023 Prospect Leaderboard formulates peak projections and rankings based on them. Unlike those two lists, the Prospect Leaderboard only uses single-season data from 2023. This makes this list more subject to volatility, but also makes it more responsive to high-risers.


Attributes/Features: 

  • Only contains current season data
  • Plate Appearance threshold begins at 0 and scales up to 100 over the first couple of months of the season
  • Exercise caution with DSL players in the second half of the season, as there is far more unpredictability at that level
  • Players ineligible to be ranked can be found in the NR section below the ranked players
  • Currently hitters only


Use: The most valuable use of the Leaderboard is in spotlighting rising talent. Since the list is updated daily, it is beneficial for "churning" your roster for new prospect talent. Pay attention to the players that rise and stay at the top of the list as they have a chance to become the next big-name prospect to debut on future top prospect lists!


Update Cadence: Daily for members


Purpose: Similar to the Single Season Leaders' architecture, the Prospect Hot List hones in and aggregates prospects' most recent activity (displaying actual results) and gives them a rank with aging curve and translation data in mind. There is a 7-day and a 30-day version of the Hot List to help you look at your preferred length of time.


Attributes/Features: 


  • Results shared are actual results
  • Player rank based on peak projected wRC+


Use: Like the Leaderboard, the hot list is designed to help with prospect "churning". It will show you the best performing prospects over the last week and the last month.


Update Cadence: Daily for members


Purpose: Prospect Larceny's formulated rankings use a variety of underlying metrics to determine player value.


Attributes/Features: 

  • 2022 data only
  • Contains pitchers!
  • Factors in the formula can be found on the Prospect Larceny page


Use: Similar to the Prospect Leaderboard, this board will give you up-to-date intel on who the fastest rising prospects are.


Update Cadence: Weekly


Purpose: BaGS=Batter Game Score. More formulated rankings based on statistical performance for you to digest! Find BaGS boards based on MLB, MiLB, and college data!


Use: While not scaled to peak, BaGS can help highlight the best performers by distilling things down to one number.


Update Cadence: Periodically through the season


Purpose: DIGS=Defense Independent Game Score. More formulated rankings based on statistical performance for you to digest, similar to BaGS, but built for pitching.


Use: While not scaled to peak, DIGS can help highlight the best performers by distilling things down to one number.


Update Cadence: Periodically through the season


Purpose: The Predictive wOBA Board is designed to remove luck from the equation and inform you what a player's performance would be based on underlying metrics.


Use: Looking for players that have been unlucky to add for a discount? This will help!


Update Cadence: Periodically through the season


Purpose: Some of the most important factors to consider with prospects is hitter plate discipline and pitcher command.


Use: These underlying metrics can help you find the next hitting or pitching talent to add to your roster!


Update Cadence: Periodically through the season


Purpose: This list shares the same methodology as our Top Projected Hitters list, but contains results stretching back to 2017.


Use: This serves as a type of back-testing for our Top Projected Hitters efficacy.


Update Cadence: Periodically through the season


Purpose: This is a list of the top projected minor leaguers stretching back to 2006 based on our peak projections.


Attributes/Features: 

  • Aggregated data from 2006 to present
  • Minor league data only
  • All projections scaled up to a player's expected peak production
  • No weighting
  • Minimum 500 plate appearances
  • Rank based on regressed projections, 80% wRC+, 20% SB/600
  • Currently hitters only


Use: This serves as a type of back-testing for our peak projections and also helps inform how your favorite prospects compare to prospects from yesteryear.


Update Cadence: Annually


About Us

Analysts, Writers, & Fans

A couple like-minded dynasty baseball enthusiasts, Ross and Jordan began working together through The Dynasty Guru in 2019. We agreed that player analysis is sometimes clouded by analyst or scout biases and that actual performance relative to age and level is often neglected. Thanks to our unique backgrounds and similar interests, an opportunity presented itself for us to use statistical analysis and data modeling to build leaderboards and rankings that are impartial and easily updated. We believe we can deliver actionable information to you faster than you will find anywhere else, whether it be for fantasy baseball, card collecting, or simply as a baseball hobbyist!


Follow us on Twitter for more related content and clever musings about life! 

@rossjensen12

&

@rosenjordanblum

Ross Jensen

Jordan Rosenblum

Jordan Rosenblum

Jordan Rosenblum

Jordan Rosenblum

Jordan Rosenblum

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