Let me set the scene. A random celebrity is on their sofa watching a game.

The camera pans over to a random athlete sitting on the other side of the living room playing on their phone.

Random Celebrity –  Hey, random athlete! What are you doing? The game is on!

Random Athlete – I just got a code from blah, blah. It says if I bet x amount of money. I’ll get a much larger x amount of free bets. (A pop up with the code flashes on the screen along with a phone notification sound)

Random Celebrity – C’mon why would they do that. You got to be joking. 

Random Athlete – It says it right here.

Random Celebrity says a joke about the athlete’s playing career. Random athlete and celebrity share a laugh. A notification sound interrupts their laughter.

Random Athlete – Wow! That was easy. (pop-up of a bet matching their app platform flashes on the screen)

Random Celebrity throws out a one liner about the random athlete. 

Insert awkward laugh.

Random athlete zings random celebrity.

Loud music plays with a promo code in large bold print and a ton of fine print at the bottom.

A voiceover of the random celebrity screams some slogan with what sounds like fans screaming.

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There is no escaping it being a sports fan. 

Odds are that you have heard countless variations of these advertisements ad nauseam over the last couple of years. 

Odds are that the majority of you dabble in sports gambling.

Now don’t worry. I’m not here to peddle some code or link for you to try one of these sites. But. if one day one of these sportsbooks wants to throw some money my way. Well… lets say you can find me on most social media platforms under Ryan Felix Fernandes or @RyanFCantWrite. Yes, it is a “s” and not a “z” at the end of my last name. Unless you want me to change it.  And no offer is too low! I can come up with jokes and one-liners about any athlete or celebrity you throw at me. I can figure out a way to sucker in people to bet their paychecks on a badminton game going on in Russia at 3am. I’ll even mention your site in every paragraph I write. Just saying… that is D-E-S.  

Now back to you, sucka. I mean you, the reader. 

 I wrote this for pure entertainment. A way to break the monotony of hot takes by the so-called experts and trolls that feel the need to debate every transaction and mention some random stat to back up their so-called analysis. As you will find out, I’m going by the seat of my pants. I use a mix of prognostication based on rumors, statistics, and my gut. Now if I hit one of these bets then I’ll edit this last part and proclaim myself as the second coming of John Anthony in this bitch. 

With that all being said, I figured with the Winter Meetings going on right now this first installment of Ultracrepidarian will go over the three team bets I like before a huge signing happens and torpedoes my picks. 

 So use the code “RFFisaGenius” and click the link below to get these picks sponsored by FanKings.  Sorry. Just practicing.

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I totally expect this so let me get this out of the way now. Don’t be that guy who says something like, “With the series tied 2-2. Game 5 is very important. Whichever team wins takes control of the Series.” Please don’t be like Magic and say to yourself, “How can this idiot not pick the Dodgers?” You probably play, “MLB the Show” on beginner mode so you can hit a home runs in every at-bat.

TORONTO BLUE JAYS

World Series Winner +1300 to +2000

AL Pennant +800 to +1000

Yes, with all the shit I just said about not picking the Dodgers. I chose the other team that was in the World Series. And yes they are also the team that has already added one of the top arms (Dylan Cease) and a savvy pickup in Cody Ponce in free agency. But, it is human nature that people tend to only remember the final outcome especially when negative. Look at the difference in the odds. This isn’t a layup.

Why I’m probably wrong.

As of right now, the Blue Jays are in the toughest division in MLB. There are no gimme wins in this division as all of the teams are all on an upward trajectory. The Yankees are getting Gerrit Cole back in the fold. The Red Sox already made a move to shore up their rotation. The Rays will be the Rays. And the Orioles…. aren’t the Rockies?

Back to the concerns I have with the Jays. First and foremost, they are taking a huge risk by relying on Shane Bieber as their third starter and default (probable) replacement for stalwart Chris Bassitt. Also, the regression of Bowden Francis’s command last season along with a lingering shoulder injury hurts the depth of this rotation. Coupling that with the fragile psyche of probable closer Jeff Hoffman leaves big question marks as the season plays out. 

On the offensive side, they are likely to lose Bo Bichette who is entering his prime and who even with a disastrous start to the 2025 season ended up with a 21.7 Offensive WAR in 2025. Who will fill that hole? Can George Springer come close to repeating his .959 OPS at the age of 36? Can Alejandro Kirk be counted on as the thumper of a championship lineup?

 

Why I might be a genius.

Besides, the key additions in the pitching rotation and the emergence of Yeasavage. The Blue Jays biggest strength is their bullpen and the addition of Louie Varland at the deadline made them the best in the AL. As for pitching depth, I wouldn’t be surprised if Ricky Tiedemann and Gage Stanifer become huge difference makers for this pitching staff in the second half of the 2026 season.   

On the offensive side, Addison Barger and Ernie Clement look primed to take the next step offensively and lengthen this lineup making it one of the deepest in the American League. They also should have a healthy Anthony Santander in the middle of the lineup to bring much needed power and balance to this lineup but I’m guessing they’d love to unload that albatross of a contract but as of right now that is highly unlikely.

The Blue Jays don’t have anyone noteworthy in the minors to help their lineup next year but they do have an intriguing player that played sparingly last season and is only 23 years old in Jonatan Clase who many evaluators were pretty high on two years ago when he 20 HRs and 79 SBs between High-A and Double-A ball in the Mariners system.  

Finally, the makeup of this core and one thing that stood out to me was that Kevin Gausman, George Springer, Daulton Varsho, and Yimi Garcia are all free agents after the ‘26 season. Something about veteran players on contract years looking for their last big paycheck tends to bring out the best in them so that makes me lean towards all of them producing at an above-average level. 

Also, with those contracts off the books, not paying Bichette, and how close they were last year they are going to do whatever it takes this year to win it all. My gut is telling me the Blue Jays will not be outbid for two marquee free agents. First, Munetaka Murakami is the ideal candidate to replace Bo Bichette in this lineup. I’m a lot higher on him because I trust Ross Jensen’s analysis. So pretty much don’t blame me if he turns out to be a bust. Murakami-sama has put up some gaudy numbers in Japan, plays third, and is two years younger. This move allows Ernie Clement to move to second and have an above-average fielder in Andres Gimenez at short. 

Before I reveal who I think the Jays will also sign. I need to say that in order to place a bet at this point of the year on any team that has “high” odds then you have to prognosticate and for me go with your gut feeling. And that feeling is telling me that the Jays will blow every other offer out there and sign Kyle Tucker. Why? I believe Blue Jays brass are tired of losing out on marquee hitters in free agency as they have in the last couple of years. Tucker along with Murakami are ideal fits with the way this team is currently constructed. *Spoiler – I am probably wrong and both those guys will sign with the Dodgers. If that happens then God help us all.  

DREAM LINEUP

DH George Springer

LF Kyle Tucker*

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr

3B Munetaka Murakami*

C Alejandro Kirk

RF Addison Barger

CF Daulton Varsho

2B Ernie Clement

SS Andres Gimenez

DREAM BENCH

IF Davis Schneider

OF Nathan Lukes

C Tyler Heineman

OF/3B Miguel Andujar*

SS Isiah Kiner-Falefa*

OF Jonatan Clase

DREAM STAFF

SP1 – Kevin Gausman

SP2 – Dylan Cease

SP3 – Shane Bieber

SP4 – Trey Yesavage

SP5 – Cody Ponce

SP6 – Jose Berrios

RP – Bowden Francis

RP – Eric Lauer

RP – Braydon Fischer

RP – Brendon Little

RP – Louie Varland 

SU – Yimi Garcia 

CL – Jeff Hoffman

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NEW YORK METS

World Series Winner +1500 to +1800

NL Pennant +500 to +600

Only one team can compete with having a worse finish to their 2025 season than the Blue Jays and that is the Mets. Maybe, I have some sort of kink for teams that fall apart at the end of the season because of my Cubdom, but hear me out. In the National League, the Mets are best equipped to take down the Dodgers in a seven game series because of one simple thing, pitching.

  

Why I’m probably wrong.

It looks more and more unlikely that Pete Alonso and his 38 home runs from last season will be part of this team’s lineup next season. This, coupled with the trade of Brandon Nimmo and his 25 homers a couple of weeks ago creates two massive. crater-like holes in this lineup especially when you consider the in-house candidates to replace Alonso at first. 

The Nimmo trade was surprising but GM David Stearns made a valid point in a need to shore up their team defense. And inserting a two-time Gold Glove winner at second base in Marcus Semien fits that bill though it makes their lineup look a lot weaker on paper. I’ll delve deeper into another reason why the Mets made that move in the next section.

As for the pitching staff, the rotation is easily this team’s strength. However, even with the addition of Devin Williams as the closer.  The bullpen remains a glaring weakness. They finished in the bottom ten for hits allowed last season. This weakness is only compounded by the loss of their setup man Reed Garrett, who is already out for 2026. In case you forgot he was lights-out for this team in the first half and that bullpen fell apart after he got injured in mid-September. They also lost some depth in their staff with the loss of starting pitcher Taylor Megil to injury which only brightens the spotlight on the Mets lack of quality middle relievers.

Why I might be a genius.

The influx of talent from their minor league system will be the key to overcoming last year’s shortcomings. Besides the emergence of Nolan McLean as a potential ace. The Mets brought up two other starting pitchers in Jonah Tong and Brandon Sproat who can be called upon to start or at least provide depth in the rotation in 2026. Tong will probably be used as a spot starter or sixth starter at some point of the season. I can see Sproat and another pitching prospect Jack Wenninger filling important bullpen roles as the season progresses. Even so they will still need to sign multiple relievers who can eat up innings. Nick Martinez and Drew Pomeranz should be their top two targets along with finding a true setup guy and ideally it will be a lefty. If Cohen opens the checkbook like he has before the Mets should go after former Padres closer Robert Suarez. These three signings, along with Devin Williams, equate to not only making the playoffs but also creating a matchup nightmare for Dodger hitters in a series.

As for the lineup, the Mets have a number of intriguing prospects who can contribute right away. First, I am a huge fan of Carson Benge who can fill Nimmo’s role in the lineup and is a far better defensive centerfielder. Next is Scout the Statline darling Jett Williams, who is heralded for his above-average hit and run tools along with versatility to play all over the field. 

In the Mets’ pipeline they also have AJ Ewing who is an ideal leadoff hitter with a contact over power approach. He also falls into a super utility player because of his athleticism that allows him to play above-average at all three outfield positions and also at second base. There isn’t any space for him right now on this roster but he has proved that his game will translate to major league success with the adjustment he made across three levels last year.  

Finally, when it comes to possibly filling Pete Alonso’s spot at first (if he does sign elsewhere). Keep your eye on Ryan Clifford who has plus-power and walks at a decent rate. His inconsistencies in making solid contact against anything off-speed is a concern and will be exploited by major league pitching if not fixed but if Mark Vientos and/or Brett Baty don’t look the part at first then Clifford is next up. 

Lastly, the biggest reason why I feel the Mets are primed to take the next step is that their owner Steve Cohen is not going to sit idly by; he is that guy who always seems to have an Amazon package being delivered to his house because he can’t help himself.  The Mets saved around $30 million in salary with the Nimmo trade and that will allow David Stearns to throw a boatload of money at Cody Bellinger. Not only is he one of the two best hitters in free agency but he plays a gold glove position at 1B. If that somehow falls through then I can see the Mets going after Kyle Schwarber to fill the DH role in this lineup with the added bonus of weakening a divisional foe. Schwarbs played 1B but he is a below-average defender at the position so I doubt they will go that route leaving Baty and Vientos as the primary options at the hot corners. Not ideal but one other option since Steve Cohen has fuck you money. Another rumor making its rounds is that the Mets reached out to Alex Bregman. That will be a double-win by shoring up third base and improving the lineup dramatically. All of these moves will improve this lineup if they let Alonso walk but in my opinion Belli is the best fit for the way this roster is constructed right now.

DREAM LINEUP

SS Francisco Lindor

CF Carson Benge

RF Juan Soto

1B Cody Bellinger*

3B Brett Baty 

LF Jeff McNeil

C Francisco Alvarez

DH Mark Vientos/Ryan Clifford

2B Marcus Semien

DREAM BENCH

2B/3B/OF Jett Williams

2B/SS Luisangel Acuna

2B/SS/3B/DH Ronny Mauricio

OF Tyrone Taylor

OF Austin Hays*

1B/3B/DH Mark Vientos or 1B/DH Ryan Clifford

OF AJ Ewing

DREAM STAFF

SP1 – Nolan McLean

SP2 – David Peterson

SP3 – Clay Holmes

SP4 – Sean Manaea

SP5 – Kodai Senga

SP6 – Jonah Tong

RP – Nick Martinez*

RP – Brandon Sproat

RP – Huascar Brazoban

Set-up – Drew Pomeranz*

Set-up – Robert Suarez*

Closer – Devin Williams

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BOSTON RED SOX 

World Series Winner +1700 to +2000

AL Pennant +750

I know my Blue Jays scenario is a bit far-fetched when it hinges on signing the biggest free agent this off-season so I will add the Red Sox as my darkhorse for the 2026 season. As I said and you all know the AL East will be the most competitive division but when I looked at the Red Sox from top to bottom. I believe they are the most complete team in the American League right now. 

Why I’m probably wrong.

I have a bad feeling that Sonny Gray might have been the “big” move that Red Sox VP Brian O’Halloran promised in a press conference in which he went over his plans for this team in 2026. Even with their plethora of young hitters they have to re-sign Alex Bregman to compete for a championship next season. 

What else worries me? There are also concerns with Triston Casas and Marcelo Mayer’s health and durability. Casas didn’t look right last season (granted it was a sample-size) but it has been two seasons since he burst on the scene. And in the last four years, Marcelo Mayer’s seasons have been all cut short due to injuries.

Next is Kristian Campell. Will he rebound from struggles at the major league level and be a key contributor to the major league roster like we all thought he would last year? Even though all of his offensive stats are pretty similar across the board compared to his previous Triple-A stint in Worcester. One stat popped out to me and that was his 84 strikeouts in 309 plate appearances (27.2 K%) compared to 103 strikeouts in 506 plate appearances (20.4 K%) in 2024. He did have a rough patch when he first got demoted and in mid-July he had a nice twelve-game span in which he had three home runs and a .400-plus average. But, he did struggle towards the end of the season as well. 

Finally, will this be the year Aroldis Chapman shows he is human? No. Have you seen his training videos? I want to see him fight one of the douchebag Paul brothers.

Why I might be a genius.

Even though Boston media isn’t the most reliable and they always predict the Red Sox will add a marquee free agent every off-season. I am encouraged by the Sonny Gray trade that Red Sox brass feel this team is ready to take the next step. Now there have been rumors involving Cole Ragans which will catapult this rotation into the top-three maybe two in all of baseball. That will cost them one of their major-league hitters and supposedly that player is Jarren Duran along with one of their-top tier minor league prospects. If I’m the Royals I need at least one pitching prospect in return which makes it tricky with the Red Sox trading away two young arms in Brandon Clarke and Richard Fitts already. In my scenario, I added Connelly Early to the trade package for Cole Ragans along with OF Justin Gonzales and P Luis Perales. If the asking price is too high for Ragans the rotation. The rotation still looks to be a strength especially if Peyton Tolle, who most evaluators tab as the top pitching prospect reaches his potential. The young talent they possess in their system will allow them to be big players at the trade deadline so there is no need to make a hasty move.

Ideally, the Red Sox will re-sign Alex Bregman and you don’t have to rely on Mayer next season at third. If that fails the next move they should contemplate is signing Bo Bichette to replace Bregman. Yes, I know Bichette has never played third and Eugenio Suarez is ranked as the second best option at third in this free agent class. But, Bichette will be 28 years old and Suarez will be 35 next season. I personally am a lot more confident that Bichette can make the adjustment to third than trusting Suarez to continue to perform at a high-level. Of course, I’ve been wrong about trusting aging vets who had career years on their contract year but Suarez didn’t look like the difference maker with a .189/.255/.428 line in his 53 games with the Mariners. I’m sorry but it just gives me Anthony Rendon vibes with the numbers being thrown out there to sign Suarez. 

DREAM LINEUP

LF Roman Anthony

SS Trevor Story

3B Alex Bregman

1B Triston Casas

RF Wilber Abreu

C Carlos Navarez

CF Ceddana Rafaela

2B Kristian Campbell

DH Marcelo Mayer

Bench

INF/OF Romy Gonzalez

INF Mikey Romero

OF Nate Eaton

2B/3B Ramon Urias*

OF Mike Yaztrzenski*

OF Lane Thomas*

Ideal Pitching Staff

SP1  Garrett Crochet

SP2 Sonny Gray

SP3  Cole Ragans*

SP3 Brayan Bello

SP4 Peyton Tolle

SP5 Kutter Crawford

SP6 Patrick Sandoval

RP Johan Oviedo

RP Kyle Harrison

RP Gary Weissert

RP Jordan Hicks

SU Justin Slaten

SU Garrett Whitlock

CL Aroldis Chapman

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Winning is a funny thaaa-ng… It is one of those rare commodities on Earth that money cannot buy.