So after dealing with the flu for the last couple weeks I found myself catching another fever and the only prescription is more cowbell… I mean reckless betting. 

The Rookie of Year categories falls right into the Scout the Statline wheelhouse and let’s just say this category might be the one that you can clean up on by checking out the latest Peak Projections. This week I’ll cover the American League side of it.

THE FAVS (Consensus odds as of January 14th, 2025)

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Trey Yeasavage +200

Munetaka Murakami  +380

Kazuma Okamoto +400

Tatsuya Imai +500

So it makes sense that these betting sites chose these four players. Each one has had success against competition higher than MiLB.  Yesavage had that impressive stretch during the Blue Jays playoff run in which he went 3-1 and had 10+ strikeouts in multiple games. Murakami (Ross Jensen’s prospect crush) was a two-time MVP in the JCPL (NPB) and won a Triple Crown in 2022. Okamoto put a slash line of .274/.355/.501/.882 with 248 HRs and 1,089 hits in the JCPL (NPB). Imai racked up 58 wins with a 3.15 ERA and 14 complete games in his JPEL (NPB) career.  

All are viable candidates to take home the AL Jackie Robinson ROY award but c’mon where is the fun in betting on the favorites? That being said, there are two MiLB prospects I’ll go over who bring genuine superstar potential to the table. Neither aren’t slow-burn projects; they’re ready to impact the game from day one if given the opportunity.

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SAMUEL BASALLO – BALTIMORE ORIOLES – ODDS are +800

Scout the Statline’s most heralded prospect and a perennial top five prospect in Peak Projections for the last three-ish years, Samuel Basallo is my choice to win AL Rookie of the Year. Since late-2023, Basallo has been ballyhooed by every baseball publication imaginable for not only his plus-plus raw power but also the plus-plus contact skills he possesses. Talent and tools that you don’t come across very often in one player.

In 2024, the Orioles challenged a then 19-year old Basallo with a bump in competition after the gaudy numbers he put up between Single-A and High-A the year before. He spent the season between Double-A and Triple-A where he produced a slash line of .278/.341/.449/.790 with 19 HRs and 46 walks in 532 plate appearances. These initial numbers look great on the surface but the underlying Sabermetrics reveal a different story with a xBA of .200, .329 xSLG, and a xwOBA of .253. That clearly was a result of his 31.8 K%, 35.84 Chase%, and 36.6 Whiff% which landed in the 15th percentile or worse in all of these categories among Triple-A players. 

The progression a player makes after he struggles like what Basallo endured in 2024 is what MLB organizations do to gauge if a prospect is special. It is pretty much a sink or swim philosophy to see if a young player has the skills, talent, and mental fortitude to make the necessary adjustments to improve. And that’s exactly what Basallo did.   

From the tape I’ve seen of him in 2025, Basallo simplified his mechanics by staying much quieter in the box. He looks remarkably relaxed with a level of poise you usually only see from seasoned MLB vets. What makes him special in my eyes is his ability to stay within himself; unlike most young players who try to mash every pitch, he doesn’t try to do too much. He almost guides the ball through the zone, making him a threat to hit to all fields to go with his plus-plus power tool. While the tape has always shown he possesses elite bat-to-ball skills, the strides he’s made in pitch recognition are nothing short of impressive. As he gains the experience needed to anticipate how pitchers will attack him, his ceiling becomes legitimately scary.

In 2025, not only did simplify his hitting mechanics by being a lot more quiet in the box. He looks a lot more relaxed which you usually only see from seasoned MLB vets. What makes him special is his ability to not do too much with a pitch. What I mean is that he isn’t trying to mash every pitch like most young players try to do. He almost guides the ball after making contact thus making him a threat to hit to all fields. He always had elite bat to ball skills from the tape I’ve seen of him but the strides he made in pitch recognition along with gaining a better understanding of what a pitcher will attack him with experience will make him scary. 

Last season in Triple-A he finished with a slash line of .270/.377/.589/.966 with 23 HRs and 44 walks in 321 plate appearances. These numbers alone highlight a massive leap in his approach and pitch recognition; he not only had four more home runs but also just as many walks in 211 fewer plate appearances a year ago. The growth is backed by his 23.6 K%,  32.7 Chase%, and a 30.6 Whiff%, leading to elite advanced metrics in his .277 xBA, .620 xSLG, and xwOBA to .426. 

Throwing out the pedestrian numbers he put up in his cup of coffee during the Orioles shitshow at the end of last season. The only thing that worries me is the sudden decline we’ve seen with Adley Rutschman. Since Basallo is an above-average fielder with a cannon for an arm, there’s a real chance he might wear down in his first full season if Orioles’ brass decide to make him their primary catcher moving forward. He already has had some bad luck with a wrist injury due to a hit by a pitch but from what I read he will be a 100% when Spring Training starts. Regardless, I saw enough in the massive strides he made last year to place my bet on Basallo to win the AL Rookie of the Year.

StS Peak Projections – 141 wRC+, .282/.358/.512 with 29 HRs

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KEVIN MCGONIGLE – DETROIT TIGERS –  ODDS ARE +800

The reigning StS MiLB Player of the Year would be my frontrunner for the AL Rookie of the Year award if it weren’t for two things that I will get into in a minute. First and foremost, McGonigle is the best pure hitter in MiLB and quite possibly the best pure hitter since Tony Gwynn. The kid has no holes in his swing and has an approach that is unparalleled from any other prospect in the game today. In the three seasons since he was drafted he has had more walks than strikeouts in each of those seasons. Last year between Single-A, High-A, and Double-A he had 59 walks, struck out 46 times in 397 plate appearances. That resulted in a 5.0 K% that landed in the 97th percentile of MiLB and he also had an OPS .991 with 52 extra base hits (19 HRs) and a 56.2 Hard-Hit% that was also in the 97th percentile. If you didn’t catch that he had more extra base hits than strikeouts as well. 

He has the talent, skills, and all of the intangibles of a future superstar, but his path to the 2026 Rookie of the Year award is currently blocked when Gleyber Torres accepted a one-year qualifying offer. Torres was coming off a career year and Tigers’ brass hoped they’d net a supplemental draft pick when Torres signed somewhere else to gain a supplemental draft pick. Now the Tigers have Torres at 2B, Zach McKinstry or Javier Baez at SS, and Colt Keith at 3B penciled in at the three positions McGonigle plays. In an interview, Tigers GM Jeff Greenberg was asked about McGonigle starting the season with the major league club and Greenberg said the team’s current focus is on his “development.” Not what you want to hear if you are banking on McGonigle to be the AL Rookie of the Year.

The other worry I have is the injury history that can’t be ignored. In 2024, he started the season with a left hamstring strain that sidelined him for a couple of weeks and then in August he suffered a fracture in his right hamate bone that ended his season. Last season, he dealt with a right ankle sprain that caused him to miss the beginning of the season but thankfully ever since then he hasn’t had any further injuries. He spent this off-season in the Arizona Fall League to make up for that lost time where he finished with a ridiculous slash line of .362/.500/.710/1.210 with 5 HRs, and took home the MVP award. Hopefully, the injuries will be behind him and we will see him in the majors sometime in 2026 but don’t bank on him winning you any money as Rookie of the Year unless the Tigers make a move. 

Peak Projections – 132 wRC+, .277/.362/.476 with 24 HRs and 13 SBs

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Winning is a funny thaaaan… it is one of those rare commodities on Earth that money cannot buy.