ULTRACREPIDARIAN – Volume Tatu: NL Rookie of the Year

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The more I thought about my previous Ultracrepidarian piece in which I went with Samuel Basallo for AL Rookie of the Year, the more it felt like I went chalk. At +800, choosing one of the top prospects in all of baseball almost sounded logical. Especially if we include how Scout the Statline has pretty much made him the poster child among all prospects for the last two years. 

It lacked panache! It wasn’t brash and certainly not reckless like I said this whole series was about. 

I realized that I had to do something outside the box. Something irrational… almost idiotic. Lucky for me, I know someone who can help me accomplish this. My friend, Issy, who once asked me when she watched a game with me, “Why don’t the guys with the sticks just use them to hit those other guys standing around so they can touch all the white square things and win?”

Yup, she’s the perfect person to help me choose the player who will win the NL Rookie of the Year… I’m sure none of this will drive me crazy or blow up in my face in any way.

So I gave Issy the names accompanied with a picture of each player that is listed on The Betting Pros website to win the NL Rookie of the Year. Each name was randomly given to her but to make it easier to follow along I will go down the list from best to worst odds as the pictures below show. I will then use the criteria of selecting a player that has long odds (+1000 minimum), Issy was a fan of, and a player that I can realistically make an argument for. 

With that being said…

“Your winning move starts here!” No, that isn’t it.

“The crown is yours!” Nah.

“Bet smart, win big.” No, that’s definitely not going to work with what I’m doing. 

Fuck it. Let’s just say this is a better option than giving your money to that Only Fans model that is probably AI generated with mob ties that has some poor guy that barely speaks English chained to a computer running it from some country that ends in -stan or -ia… and sees more dicks per hour than dollars. 

Oh! I almost forgot… Bet responsibly…. and all that bullshit. 

Yeah, that works.

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NOLAN McLEAN +370 – NY METS – SP

ISSY – Didn’t McDonalds have a sandwich called The McLEan for fat people who wanted to eat healthy? 

ME – Wow. I don’t think so. 

ISSY – I am pretty sure I read something about it. *looks closer at the picture of McLean on the screen* I don’t like his facial hair. He needs to shave off whatever he has going on here. *hovers her hand around his entire face on the screen* I proceed to show Issy a picture of McLean with no facial hair* 

ISSY – Ugh.. nevermind. It’s too bad because his hair curls up when he grows it out, which I like. But, his last name bothers me with the whole lying to people about McDonalds being healthy… Now I feel like McDonalds.

ME – Well, now I feel like McShooting myself for coming up with this idea.

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KONNOR GRIFFIN +800 (Only player to have their odds get better since sites opened betting) – PITT PIRATES – SS

ISSY – I bet he was the star player in every sport, the Prom King, and school valedictorian.  

ME – Well, he is pretty much the consensus top prospect in all of baseball. 

ISSY – Prospect? 

ME – Yeah, that’s what they call amateur baseball players. 

ISSY – Is that something to do with the guys that mined for gold? 

ME – You’re lucky you’re hot. 

ISSY – What. 

ME – You’re right… that’s exactly where it comes from. 

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SAL STEWART +900 -CINCY REDS – 1B/DH

ISSY – Sal? 

ME – Yeah? 

ISSY -No. 

ME -Care to elaborate?

ISSY – I knew a guy named Sal. He was weird. 

ME – You’re weird.

ISSY -What? 

ME – Anything else? 

ISSY – Something is off with his eyebrows.

ME -Something is definitely off.

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MOISES BALLESTEROS +1000 – CHI CUBS – C

ISSY – Oh! He is on the Cubs. He looks like an adult and a 15 year old at the same time.

ME – Yeah, he has a bit of a baby face. He plays catcher. 

ISSY – Doesn’t everyone try to catch the ball?

ME – Well, yeah. When they are out in the field. 

ISSY – So why isn’t everyone called a catcher? 

ME – Because they don’t. How about we focus on Moises Ballesteros. 

ISSY – I like his name. It sounds like the name that some famous Latino singer would have. Hmmm… I bet he can sing. He looks like he can sing.  

ME – Maybe? Hopefully he can hit too. 

ISSY – Like a hit song? 

ME – Exactly. 

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BUBBA CHANDLER – +1100 – PITT PIRATES – SP

ME – I know you will have something good for this guy’s name. Bubba Chandler.

ISSY – Hmph. Why do you say that?

ME – Forrest Gump? His best friend, Bubba?

ISSY – What are you talking about?

ME – You know… The shrimp line he said… You can barbecue it, boiled, broiled, sauteed… he went on with twenty ways to cook shrimp.

ISSY – Doesn’t ring a bell. 

ME – ”I gotta find Buuuubbbbaa!” 

ISSY – I never saw that movie. 

ME – What? Why not?

ISSY – I don’t know. I just didn’t.

Me – It was huge! It is referenced today. I remember my parents making a big deal about it when we rented it from Blockbuster.

ISSY – I don’t think I was born when it came out. *gives me a blank stare while playing with her hair* 

ME – What! Noooo.. I know it came out a while ago but hold on…  (googled the release date) So, I was pretty much 14 (years old) when it first came out on July 6th, 1994. When were you born?

ISSY – You forgot my birthday?

ME – No, but what year were you born?

ISSY – When is it?

ME – August 28th. 

ISSY – Alright… Well, I was born on August 28th, 1994… And I am not sure about Bubba’s (Chandler’s) mustache or his weird name. So, it’s a no for me.

ME – Huh. I guess I didn’t do the math when it came to your age. It’s funny because I’m sure Samantha (my sister) has it somewhere in her storage but it’s a VHS tape. She kept all of her VHS tapes for some crazy reason,

ISSY – What’s a VHS ?   

ME – I’m not sure if I want to do this anymore. 

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JUSTIN CRAWFORD – +1300 – PHILLY PHILS – OF

ISSY – He looks sleepy. 

ME- What do you mean? 

ISSY – His eyes are pretty much closed. 

ME – Maybe it’s just this picture. (I find another one) 

ISSY – See! He’s tired. He probably isn’t good because he needs some sleep. 

ME – I will probably need a nap after this.

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BRYCE ELDRIDGE – +1500 – SAN FRAN GIANTS – 1B/DH

ISSY – Oh wow! He can be a model or an actor. He wins. 

ME – Well, this isn’t about who is the best looking guy out of everyone. 

ISSY – Yeah, you’re right. Maybe there might be someone hotter. But he is extremely handsome. He looks super tall in that one pic. 

ME – Well, he is 6’7. 

ISSY – Ha. Six, seven. 

ME – What? 

ISSY – Six, seven. 

ME – Ohhh. I don’t get it. 

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CHARLIE CONDON – +1600 – COLORADO ROCKIES – 1B/OF

ISSY – He looks like a surfer and is probably a stoner too.

ME – I doubt it.

ISSY – I bet he says dude a lot. And Charlie is a fun name. 

ME – That’s perfect. 

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OWEN CAISSIE – +1900 – MIAMI MARLINS – OF

ISSY – Is that Ed Sheeran? 

ME – I think you are only thinking that because he has red hair. 

ISSY – Maybe. He looks super smart too. I bet he got straight A’s.

ME – It’s possible. What kind of grades did you get? 

ISSY – I always got good grades. 

ME – Doubt that. 

ISSY – What was that? 

ME – I said you look pretty today. 

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JONAH TONG – +2000 – NY METS – SP

ISSY – Are you messing with me now? 

ME – What do you mean? 

ISSY – He looks like he can be in grade school. 

ME – Well, he is only 22. 

ISSY – What did you look like when you were 22? 

ME – I looked 22. 

ISSY – Then what happened? 

ME – I got old.

ISSY – Yeah, you did. 

ME – Anything else? 

ISSY – Tong, Tong, Tong, Tong, Tooong… Remember that song? 

ME – You were probably five (years old) when that came out.

ISSY – Let’s see.

ME – NO!

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RHETT LOWDER – +2200 – CINCY REDS SP

ISSY – What kind of name is Rhett? 

ME – Yeah, it’s unique. I haven’t known anyone else to have that name. 

 ISSY – He looks like Kenny Powers from Eastbound and Down. 

ME – That is a great show. I’m surprised you watched that. 

ISSY – Why? 

ME – It’s kind of based around baseball. 

ISSY – Oh yeah! Do all baseball players snort drugs and are on steroids? 

ME – Only the good ones in the 80’s and 90’s did.

 
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QUINN MATTHEWS – +3000 – ST LOUIS CARDS – SP

ISSY – What’s wrong with his smile? It looks like he is forcing it… like when you were a kid and your parents forced you to smile. 

ME – *I look closer at the picture on the screen* I can’t argue with you on that. 

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ANDREW PAINTER – +3500 – PHILLY PHILS – SP

ISSY – I’m not sure about him. He looks like a kid dressed up as an adult. Also, I don’t trust people who have last names named after a profession. 

ME – What? 

ISSY – I knew a Sabrina Baker. She was a bitch. A Joy Cook. She was a bitch too. Renee Taylor (tailor)… She was nice till she turned into a bitch.

ME – You keep a list of people you hate and read it every night before you go to bed… don’t you? *awkward silence*

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JOE MACK – +3500 – MIAMI MARLINS – C

ISSY – Ohhhh!!! Joe Mack!!! He can mack on me anytime!!!

ME – That’s interesting. He is the second Miami Marlin you are into.

ISSY – Marlin? 

ME – Yeah, that’s his team’s mascot. It’s a fish. 

ISSY – Ugh. Yuck… I don’t know now. 

ME – Damn. That’s all it takes for you to switch like that?

ISSY – Yup *stares a hole right into my soul*

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JHOSTYNXON GARCIA +4000 – PITT PIRATES – OF

ME – *I keep butchering his first name so I show it on the computer along with his picture*  His nickname is “The Password”. 

ISSY – I don’t get it. 

ME – His first name looks like random letters that you’d use for a password. 

ISSY – I just use my name then 123 with an exclamation mark at the end for all my stuff. 

ME – Good to know. What do you think about The Password? 

ISSY – He has really nice hair but I’d like him more if his name ended with an exclamation mark. 

ME – I can’t believe I came up with this idea.

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ALEX FREELAND +5000 – LA DODGERS – SS/3B

ISSY – I don’t know if he looks better with or without a mustache. 

ME – A lot of these kids have mustaches. I guess it’s cool now.

ISSY – You should grow one.

ME – Nah.

ISSY – Why not? 

ME – I don’t think I’d look good with one.

ISSY – Yeah, you are probably right. It won’t be cute like Alex’s (Freeland). It will probably be all grey and you’ll look like one of those creepy guys that women are scared of.

ME – Perhaps I’ll grow one now so you’ll leave.

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JETT WILLIAMS  +5500 – MILWAUKEE BREW CREW – 2B/SS/3B/OF

ISSY – Jett! That’s so cool!! I love that name! 

ME – Yeah, it’s cool. 

ISSY – You think his parents named him that because they had sex on a jet when he was conceived?

ME – Uh. I don’t know.

ISSY – You should ask him if you ever meet him.

ME – So, you want me to ask him is if his parents named him Jett because they had sex on a jet at the time he was conceived?

ISSY – Yup.

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HUNTER BARCO +5500 – PITTS PIRATES – SP

ISSY – No, no, no. His first name is a profession. 

ME – I don’t think anyone is a hunter. (as a profession)

ISSY -Yeah, there are. You never heard of a Vampire Hunter?

ME – Ummm.. that’s only in books and movies.

ISSY – Vampires are real. *I laugh* Don’t laugh. I knew a whole group of people in high school who were ones. 

ME – You can’t be serious. I think you are thinking of the Goths. 

ISSY – I didn’t know what their names were! I don’t think vampires even have last names!

ME – I really need to sit down and question my choices in life.

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CHAD PETTY +6000 – CINCY REDS – SP

ISSY – Petty… Patty.. Peett-tty… Paatt-tay, Pet-tttyyyy.. Patty. I like it. His name gets a yes from me.

ME – I wasted so much time on this.

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HARRY FORD +7500 – WASHINGTON NATS – C

ISSY – You think he is related to the guy who invented the car?

ME – Doubt it. 

ISSY -You never know.

ME – Well, I guess it is possible. 

ISSY – I had a Ford Escort… It’s a sucky car! Make sure to tell him that.

ME –  Right on the top of my To Do List.

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AIDAN MILLER  +8000 – PHILLY PHILS – SS 

ISSY – Oh wow! He looks like Kris Bryant. 

ME – You know who Kris Bryant is? 

ISSY – Well, he’s hot so yeah. Does he still play? 

ME – Kind of. 

ISSY – Well, he’s hot. So that makes Aidan hot. 

ME – This is riveting stuff.

ISSY – It’s the eyes. I remember his (Bryant’s) eyes. It was sooooo hot. *looks closer into the screen*

ME – I am sure if anyone really ends up reading this then they will find this helpful.  

ISSY – Now that I look closer at his face… he doesn’t look like Kris Bryant. Wait. Maybe he does. Uhhh.. No. It’s a no… maybe. 

*I get up and walk into the bedroom to scream into one of my pillows*

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CAM COLLIER +10000 – CINCY REDS

ISSY – He has a pretty smile and I like that he is named after a rapper too.

ME – Which rapper? 

ISSY – Cam… He wore pink and he wore pink and sang that song… 

Hey ma (wassup?), Let’s slide (all right),

All right, and we gon’ get it on tonight

ME – Well, first off he goes by Cam’ron. But I guess it works since he also went by Killa Cam.

ISSY – Yeah, you think he (Collier) was named after him (Cam’ron)? 

ME – There is no way. Cam’ron isn’t that old for someone to be named after him that has a shot of playing in the majors this year. (I googled Cam’ron’s age: 49 years old; I then googled Cam Collier’s age: 21 years old) 

ME – This is just beyond depressing.

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JEFERSON QUERO +10000 – MILWAUKEE BREW CREW – C

ISSY – Doesn’t Quero something in Spanish? 

ME – Quiero?

ISSY – Yeah, Quero. 

ME – No. *I say it slowly* quiero.

ISSY – Yes, Quero!

ME – No the word is… quiero!!

ISSY – Just say you don’t know what Quero means. 

ME – ¡Quiero que esto termine! (I want this to end)

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If you actually made this far… I’m going to assume you are either related or a friend of mine or Issy’s. So thank you and I owe you.  

Now there was only one guy who checked all the boxes.

Again, the criteria was that Issy had to be a “fan” of that player, the player has long odds (minimum of +1000), has a legit shot at winning a starting spot on their major league team out of Spring Training, and I can make a decent argument for. 

There would have been two that I could possibly go with but Jhostnyxon Garcia was traded to one of the worst hitting ballparks (PNC Park) in all of MLB. The other being Aidan Miller, who I’ve noticed in the last week has been receiving a ton of helium on social media. But it looks like the Phillies will keep Alec Bohm at the hot corner but I truly believe Miller is a better hitter than Bohm right now. The Phillies brass obviously felt they needed an upgrade at that position with their pursuit of Bo Bichette. 

So, that leaves me with one choice…

OWEN CAISSIE, MIAMI MARLINS OF +1900

As a Cubs fan, it was disappointing to see the team trade Caissie away, but for the sake of this argument, the move gives him a much better chance to start immediately and win the NL ROY. While he was technically penciled in to take over right field for Kyle Tucker, the reality of the Cubs’ roster presented an uphill climb. Between his below-average defensive metrics, two minor league options, and Spring Training competition at RF with Kevin Alcantara, Seiya Suzuki, and Matt Shaw, his path to playing time was no certainty.

In Miami, however, the path is a lot clearer. With Kyle Stowers likely shifting to left field, Caissie has a direct path to the starting lineup in right. In fact, three major publications covering the Marlins already project him as the Opening Day starter in right field.

2025… 

Don’t let Owen Caissie’s cup of coffee in 2025 (a sub-.200 average and 40% strikeout rate) mask his true ceiling. Debuting in the heat of a pennant race to fill the shoes of Kyle Tucker is a “trial by fire” that would make any player press, let alone a kid making his major league debut.

To see Caissie’s true ceiling, we have to look no further than into the last three years that led to him being a consecutive All-Star (Double-A in ‘23 and Triple-A in ‘24 &’25) along with a selection to the Futures Game last season. In this span, he amassed 364 hits with a .283 AVG, 63 HRs, 88 doubles, 7 triples, and 23 stolen bases.  

Last season in Des Moines, he simply raked with a .286/.386/.551/.937 slash line with 22 HRs over 427 plate appearances. His advanced metrics tell an even more impressive story, with his .379 xBA, .514 xSLG, 91.9 Average EV (113.3 Max), 53.2% Hard-Hit rate, and 16.9% Barrel rate, all ranking in the 90th percentile or better among all Triple-A hitters. 

Even more telling to me were the improvements he made from a year ago in his approach at the plate. Instead of pure reliance on his elite power and good contact skills which usually fares well in the minor league level. Caissie took the next step by looking away and adjusting in or the implementation of the gap to gap approach. What I mean by that is that he paired his elite timing and power with a more selective approach while still being aggressive at the plate. He was able to do this because of the improvements he made in pitch recognition and becoming more disciplined. This led to less strikeouts, much better plate coverage, and what was even more impressive was that he produced elite-level exit velocity on balls that were hit to the opposite field or up the middle. (18 doubles and 11 of HRs were in right and center field)

This was also reflected in a .373 xwOBA and .417 xBA on pitches outside the black (middle-out) where he stayed back and let the ball travel into the zone thus hitting the ball the other way. All the while having the skill set to cover inside the black as well to drive the ball with elite reaction and bat speed to put up a ridiculous .481 xwOBA and .455 xBA. (Batted Ball Profile – 37.2% Pull%, 39.6% Middle%, and 23.2% Oppo%) 

Now don’t get me wrong. Caissie is not the second coming of Barry Bonds and no one has 100% plate coverage. He has issues with the curve and still strikes out at a high clip. But, by possessing the talent to adapt with this kind of success to go along with his tools is all the makings of an elite-level hitter.

2026…

Next season, Caissie will now have the luxury of hitting in a much friendlier stadium for hitters according to Baseball Savant. Last season, loanDepot Park finished in the top ten in Park Factor with a 101 compared to Wrigley Field that finished in the bottom ten at 97. Yes, Wrigley allowed more homers but as I mentioned he has shown that he is not just a power hitter. His new approach will play much better with not only the more spacious loanDepot Park but the closer fences out in left and right field with the dimensions at loanDepot being 340, 420, 335 going left to right compared to 355, 400, 353 at Wrigley. 

With these factors and his potential this should garner him the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year hardware to go with the several Grammys he already has. Issy still thinks he is Ed Sheeran. 🙄

Winning is a funny thaaaaang….

It is one of those rare commodities on Earth that money cannot buy.