ETA: 2022
One area where Scout the Statline and I agree, is that Francisco Alvarez is the best catching prospect in the minor leagues. Even with Adley Rutschman coming up as the #1 overall pick and hailed as one of the best catching prospects in decades, last season I was coming around to the belief that Francisco Alvarez was the best catching prospect in the league. Few players have accomplished what Alvarez has by age 20, especially catchers, as he flew through the minor leagues and earned a cup of coffee at the end of the season. There have been some struggles on the way - notably, Alvarez has regularly seen a significant drawdown in his statistical production after hitting his way to early season promotions. In 2021 his OPS was 1.213 in Single-A and .889 after a promotion to High-A; in 2022, his OPS was .922 in Double-A and .825 after a promotion to Triple-A. When locked in, however, there are few that can match Alvarez’s ceiling of offensive production. Scout the Statline projects him to hit 32 home runs on average per 600 plate appearances and gives him a 70 grade for power equivalency.
- Ross Jensen
ETA: 2024
I’m a huge supporter of Edgar Quero. I’ve been watching him closely since he debuted in 2021 and am not surprised by his ascent this season. That said, even I’m a little leery of a 19-year-old in Single-A being tabbed as the 2nd best catching prospect, particularly with such a strong group and with the players behind him being so talented. Quero has monster offensive upside, and at #4 I definitely believe in his talent and don’t see him much lower. His eye is particularly notable, and he stands a good chance to be extremely useful in OBP leagues. He backs that up with very solid power (17 HRs on the season) and will even chip in some stolen bases (12 on the season). If you have an opportunity to go get this guy, do it! Unless you have to give up one of the next two players to do it…
- Ross Jensen
ETA: 2022
In 2021, Moreno hit .367/.434/.626 on the season overall. This season he didn’t match those lofty stats, but still showed superior bat-to-ball skills, hitting .315 on the season. Moreno’s power was down dramatically overall, only hitting 3 home runs on the season and slugging .420, though much of this can be explained by a thumb injury. Moreno and Quero are back-to-back in Scout the Statline’s overall rankings, at 17 and 16, respectively. I give Moreno the edge thanks to his proximity (he has Major League exposure) and impressive hit tool. I think the power is likely to return, even if we’re unlikely to see him match his 2021 over a full season. If you’re looking for confirmation, Moreno was momentarily Baseball America’s #1 overall prospect, until he was leapfrogged later in the season by Gunnar Henderson.
- Ross Jensen
ETA: 2023
If this was based on 2022 alone, Endy would be Scout the Statline’s #1 overall catcher. His 2022 was simply remarkable, finishing the season with a .323/.407/.590 slash. What’s more impressive, is the trend that his season has been on. Endy played at three levels on the season (A+, AA, AAA) and improved at every stop along the way and as the season progressed (slashing a remarkable .380/.447/.681 over the last three months). That’s a sign of someone learning on the go. Thanks to his incredible season trend, solid track record, and proximity, I’ve seen enough to elevate Endy Rodriguez to my #2 overall catching prospect, just below the very talented Francisco Alvarez.
- Ross Jensen
ETA: 2024
Ford followed up his impressive 2021 debut with a solid all-around slash of .274/.425/.439 at Single-A at age 19 and is already looking like one of the strongest additions to what has suddenly become one of the minor league's deepest positions. While the bat doesn't look quite as strong as his 19 year old counterpart Edgar Quero, Ford possesses similar on base capabilities. He also has burgeoning power that appears poised to grow as he fills out. In addition, Ford owns sneaky speed, stealing 23 bases on the season overall. While I am a fan of his overall profile long-term, for now I prefer Davis, Campusano, and O'Hoppe due to their MLB proximity and similar ceiling potential.
- Ross Jensen
ETA: 2024
Wells is a bit of a tricky case for me. While he does not make my personal top 10, it's less that I don't like him and more that there are just so many other good options and I’m fully willing to acknowledge that I may be mistaken leaving him off my list. Wells combines a solid all-around performance across three levels in 2022, where he slashed a combined .277/.385/.512, with a solid track record stretching back to his college days with Arizona. Wells seems to do it all, hitting for solid average paired with strong OBP data, the ability to hit with power, and even has quite a bit of speed for a catcher, with 32 stolen bases in 871 career minor league plate appearances without being caught once. As I write this, I’m really second-guessing myself.
- Ross Jensen
ETA: 2024
Arguably 2018’s top international prospect, Cartaya experienced a breakout in 2021, posting a 1.023 OPS as a 19 year old at Single-A, albeit in just 137 plate appearances. In 2022, Cartaya began the season again at Single-A, eventually earning a promotion to High-A. Overall, Cartaya’s numbers were down some from 2021, slashing .254/.389/.503 across the two levels as a 20 year old. Cartaya brings pedigree, a solid eye, and power potential to the table. I may be just a little lower on him than others, though Cartaya absolutely has high potential as a catcher and as an offensive contributor for the Dodgers within the next couple years.
- Ross Jensen
ETA: 2024
2021’s #1 overall pick Davis had a stellar debut last season, posting a .808 slugging percentage in the low minors. 2022 was more of a mixed bag. Davis had a strong start to the campaign, posting a 1.035 OPS in High-A before a promotion and battling an injury-riddled second half. The result was a less-than-appetizing showing in Double-A, where Davis hit near the Mendoza Line, posting a .207/.324/.379 slash at the level. I’m chalking the struggles up to injury and think we’ve seen enough from Davis to believe in his offensive upside. While he didn’t come in with the same expectations that followed 2019’s #1 overall pick Adley Rutschman, Henry Davis has been equally as productive in his rise through the minor leagues so far.
- Ross Jensen
ETA: 2022
One of 2022's most pleasant surprises, though O'Hoppe's rise didn't necessarily come out of left field. Back in 2018, the 23rd round selection for the Phillies made a promising debut, slashing .367/.411/.532 as a 18 year old at the Rookie level. Unfortunately, his follow-up season in 2019 was one of struggles. O'Hoppe only managed a .673 OPS and fell off the radar. Despite a solid rebound in 2021 (a respectable .789 OPS), O'Hoppe remained relatively unknown until this season's breakout. At 22 years old in Double-A, O'Hoppe slashed .283/.416/.544 with 26 home runs and nearly as many walks as strikeouts. O'Hoppe received a cup of coffee near the end of the season and should be ready for the major leagues early in 2023.
- Ross Jensen
ETA: 2026
Scout the Statline diamond in the rough or small sample size duping? Take your pick! In 164 plate appearances, the 20 year old Olivar put up an eye-popping slash of .341/.433/.580. Personally, I'm not buying it. There are just too many red flags. At 21 years old, Olivar barely qualifies for our list due to lack of professional exposure, and wasn't young for the Rookie level, where he did the vast majority of his damage this season. The underlying metrics also don't suggest he has a particularly advanced approach. I predict that Olivar will fall off the StS top 10 for the position with some plate appearances at higher levels, but would love to be proven wrong!
- Ross Jensen
ETA: 2023
Simply put, Manzardo is one of the best hitters in the minor leagues. A .336/.404/.533 career hitter with Washington State before being selected in the 2nd round of the 2021 draft by the Rays, Manzardo has only improved since becoming a pro. In a small sample of plate appearances after debuting in the low minors, Manzardo slashed .349/.440/.605. This season, across High-A and Double-A, Manzardo consistently maintained that high-level production, hitting .327/.426/.617 in 397 plate appearances. Manzardo leads all of the minor leagues in peak projected wRC+ thanks to his level of production and age/level factors. He grades out with a 70 hit tool and 60 power on the Scout the Statline Scout Grade Equivalencies, well above average grades that are among some of the best you’ll find in the minors. Yet somehow Manzardo remains scantly seen on many of the major top 100 lists - meaning there is ample opportunity for you to find a supreme talent at a bargain.
-Ross Jensen
ETA: 2022
The first round pick of the Red Sox in 2018, Casas fits the mold as a big-bodied first base masher. Statistically, while Casas has not had any loud breakouts, he has been remarkably consistent since joining the minor leagues. In 2019, his age-19 season, Casas slashed .256/.350/.480 with 23 home runs in Single-A and High-A. In 2021, Casas put together a line of .279/.394/.484 in Double-A and Triple-A. This season was more of the same, after a .281/.389/.500 line and 20 home runs, Casas earned a promotion to the major leagues. Casas is at the top of the list of a very good group of first base candidates for the Red Sox and looks primed to man the position for years to come.
-Ross Jensen
ETA: 2023
Another Red Sox first baseman, Kavadas has taken a very different path through his minor league career than Casas. Kavadas did not enter the minor leagues with high expectations, taken out of Notre Dame in the 11th round of the 2021 draft. However, Kavadas made a loud splash in the low minors this season, posting a 1.062 OPS in Single-A and an even better 1.064 OPS in High-A in over 400 plate appearances between the levels, before coming down to earth in a handful of appearances at Double-A. Kavadas profiles to draw plenty of walks and hit for plenty of power. While old for the low minors, it’s hard to ignore the .280/.443/.547 overall line that Kavadas put up in 2022.
-Ross Jensen
ETA: 2022
A former 2nd round pick by the Mets, Vientos was a high-rising name after a strong debut in 2018 as an 18 year old. He all but disappeared from top prospect lists after a 2019 season full of strikeouts and struggles. Vientos once again began to change his fortunes in 2021 in the high minors after posting a .281/.352/.581 line with 25 home runs. At Triple-A for most of 2022, we saw more of the same from Vientos, posting a similar .280/.358/.519 triple-slash with 24 home runs and an improving walk rate, earning a brief cup of coffee near the end of the season. Vientos still has room to grow with his plate discipline, but possesses tantalizing power potential if he finds his groove at the major league level. If he remains a Met, he may be forced to a different position (3B or OF).
-Ross Jensen
ETA: 2024
Another lumbering force with free-swinging habits, the then 20 year old Noel had a massive breakout in 2021, hitting .340/.390/.615 with 19 home runs in 290 plate appearances across the low minors. This season, facing more advanced pitching primarily at High-A and Double-A, Noel’s impressive power was on full display (32 home runs), though his lack of plate discipline led to a sinking average and on base percentage, putting together an overall line of .229/.310/.489. Noel has the power to be an offensive force, but he will need some time to improve his approach at the plate. Nonetheless, a cup of coffee in 2023 is not out of the question.
-Ross Jensen
ETA: 2025
I’ll start with the good: Jesus Rodriguez has put up some eye-popping numbers in his young career, stretching back to two seasons in DSL. This year, at the Rookie level, the Venezuelan Rodriguez slashed .349/.434/.576 with more walks than strikeouts (15:14). Pretty impressive-looking data. Now for the risks: Rodriguez played the season as a 20 year old, hardly young for the Rookie level. While nice, the slash line only accounts for 152 plate appearances and Rodriguez only has 375 total in his career to judge off of. I’m not buying it. At best, this is someone you’ll want to wait and see with.
-Ross Jensen
ETA: 2025
A former Youtube sensation known for light tower power, Jordan has been quite different since joining the Red Sox in 2021, demonstrating solid all-around hitting skills across two seasons in the lower minor leagues. As an 18 year old, Jordan put on a hitting clinic at the Rookie level, slashing .362/.408/.667 and earning a promotion to Single-A. In 2022, Jordan produced consistently across Single-A and High-A, putting together an overall slash of .289/.363/.445. Jordan’s data is just solid across the board, and he has a chance to shoot up rankings with a solid showing in 2023 at Double-A. There is a decent chance that Jordan ends up playing third base rather than first.
-Ross Jensen
ETA: 2023
A former catcher, Soderstrom began spending more time at first in 2022, rising all the way through the minor leagues to Triple-A as a 20 year old. Soderstrom’s profile includes an intriguing 2021 debut where he slashed .306/.390/.568 in 254 plate appearances. He continued to hit for impressive power in 2022, hitting 29 home runs and slashing .267/.324/.501 overall. The strikeouts may be one area to watch, as he struck out 145 times in 556 plate appearances. However, given his relative youth, I’m not too concerned. Soderstrom stands a chance to receive major league exposure in the second half of 2023.
-Ross Jensen
ETA: 2023
A former 4th round pick by the Twins, Cabbage, now with the Angels organization, has grown into an intriguing prospect thanks to his power potential. Albeit in just 136 plate appearances, in 2022 Cabbage put together an impressive slash of .327/.434/.664, following up on a season (2021) where he hit 27 home runs. The strikeout rate, however, is concerning, as Cabbage still struck out in nearly 35% of his plate appearances. At 25 years old, this is a red flag that could prevent Cabbage from finding sustained major league success.
-Ross Jensen
ETA: 2023
Noda’s career has been marked by power and on base capabilities. However, at 26 years old, a persistently high strikeout rate is not going to do him a lot of favor in garnering playing time with a talented Dodgers squad. A career .264/.407/.486 hitter in five minor league seasons, it seems that Noda’s best chance to make a major league impact would come with a different team.
-Ross Jensen
ETA: 2023
Perhaps coming as a surprise to those of you newer to Scout the Statline, Edouard Julien comes in at #1 for 2B prospects in our data-based rankings and in my personal rankings. Julien entered the league in 2021 and has established himself as an on base machine since that time. This comes somewhat as a surprise, as the numbers are quite different from what they looked like during his college career with Auburn. Julien’s career line, since entering the league, is .283/.437/.485, racking up 208 walks in 1,022 plate appearances (122 walks per 600 PA)! This season, as a 23 year old in Double-A, Julien took a more aggressive approach, resulting in a .300/.441/.490 triple slash, with 17 home runs and 19 stolen bases, still walking 98 times on the season. Julien capped his year off by completely dominating the AFL, slashing .400/.563/.686 while walking more than he struck out. One item to take note of: Julien is reportedly limited on defense, to the point that whether or not he even sticks at 2B is in question.
-Ross
ETA: 2022
In the past two minor league seasons combined, the 24 year old Aranda (out of Tijuana, Mexico) has slashed .324/.402/.531 with 32 home runs in 876 plate appearances across high-A, Double-A, and Triple-A. He has really grown into some power during that time frame (in his previous 847 minor league plate appearances, he only mustered 8 total home runs). This led to a brief cup of coffee for Aranda, though he has yet to hit with success there. In typical Rays fashion, Aranda has spent time playing all over the field, with the bulk of his reps coming at first, second, and third base (he spent some time in the outfield as well). This bodes well for your lineup’s flexibility, though it’s also worth mentioning that Aranda has some defensive limitations, which may impact his playing time at the big league level for the Rays. His bat is ready, but we’ll have to wait and see how often he will have the opportunity to show it.
-Ross
ETA: 2022
Oh Bae Bae, what to say. Hailing from South Korea, Bae took a somewhat different path to the major leagues, opting to bypass the KBO and posting system and come directly to the states to work his way through the minor leagues. Bae doesn’t possess the most eye-popping numbers, but he has been as steady as they come with the bat since turning pro. Holding a career .294 batting average through his minor league career, Bae earned a cup of coffee at the tail end of the 2022 season. With a solid eye, Bae kept his strikeout rate in check (16.9%) while walking in 10.1% of his plate appearances. There’s not a lot of power to be found, but Bae appears to be a solid fill-in who will chip in some stolen bases (30 at Triple-A in 2022). At 23 years old, Bae should get solid exposure at the major league level in 2023.
-Ross
ETA: 2025
Out of Taiwan, the stoutly-built Hao Yu Lee started out hot in 2022, finally cooling down as temperatures began to peak in August. Overall on the season, Lee slashed .284/.386/.438 with 9 home runs and 14 stolen bases. Ultimately, he looks like a player with a solid bat (with plus plate discipline) and power. Despite his stolen base total in 2022, I do not expect that speed will be a big part of his game as he continues to grow and fill out. Lee is someone to watch in 2023, particularly for those interested in OBP.
-Ross
ETA: 2025
At just 18 years old, Ramirez made a statement across Rookie and Single-A in 2022, slashing .316/.388/.481 overall with 4 home runs and 15 stolen bases. Across his short career so far (which began in 2021 at the DSL level), Ramirez has shown the ability to make consistent contact, striking out in just 12% of his plate appearances while making powerful contact. He projects to be a high average hitter with decent power and speed. This is one of the players you want to keep a close eye on in 2023.
-Ross
ETA: 2023
The athletic Taylor had a big breakout in the first half of 2021, hitting for ample power and flashing plus base speed. His penchant for striking out is the only thing holding the 24 year old back. His numbers in 2021 eventually came back down to earth, and he was a more human performer in 2022, slashing .258/.337/.426 overall with 9 home runs and 23 stolen bases at Triple-A in just 280 plate appearances. Taylor packs solid power and excellent speed and he’s experienced enough now to receive a shot, but he’s going to need to professionalize his plate approach to find success at the major league level.
-Ross
ETA: 2024
Sharing a profile somewhat similar to Samad Taylor above, Kyren Paris’s calling card is excellent speed (stealing nearly 50 bases per 600 plate appearances) and sneaky power (14 home runs per 600 PA). A 21 year old drafted by the Angels in the 2nd round whose resume includes some experience at the Double-A level (where he finished 2022 at), the one thing that could end up holding Paris back from success at higher levels is a penchant for striking out. Like Taylor, if Paris can cut it back some, he can be a very helpful fantasy asset. Something to keep an eye on for 2023!
-Ross
ETA: 2024
Saggese has become one of my favorite candidates to be a high-riser in 2023. As a 20 year old in 2022 (he is still 20), Saggese had a nice breakout, beginning the season at High-A, where he slashed .308/.359/.487 with 14 home runs and 11 stolen bases. He caught a hot streak in September (slashing .360/.439/.660), and rode that through an impressive promotion at Double-A, where he capped off his season with a 1.266 OPS in 22 more plate appearances. Saggese garners a favorable comp to Jacque Jones and projects to hit for solid power while stealing the occasional base.
-Ross
ETA: 2022
At 25 years old, Terrin Vavra is older than you’d like to see in a prospect, though he did receive some pretty solid major league exposure in 2022 and will likely spend most of his time in 2023 there. Vavra has a solid bat with good plate discipline but possesses limited power (35 scout grade equivalency) and not a lot of speed. Vavra has the looks of a player that will bounce around the diamond filling in spots and spelling other players when they need time off.
-Ross
ETA: 2022
Now 23 years old, Rosario has been playing professionally since he was 16, accumulating 2,761 minor league plate appearances in that time. Consistently challenged and always young for the level he played, Rosario struggled with productivity early in his career. That began to change in 2021, when Rosario started showing more power, boosting his OPS by 100 points over the previous season he played (2019), setting a single-season career high in home runs with 12 at the highest level he had yet appeared at, Double-A. That trend continued in 2022, as Rosario again set a new high in home runs, this time belting 22, and slugging percentage (.508). The new power has made a world of difference for Rosario, whose prospects as a professional are now intriguing. The trend is too good to ignore.
-Ross
ETA: 2024
Your #1 Scout the Statline shortstop comes from the Cincinnati Reds and was an absolute wrecking ball in 2022, slashing .304/.359/.586 overall, with 28 home runs and 47 stolen bases, consistently mashing across High-A and Double-A. The counting stats are practically unrivaled, but while his fantasy potential is enticing as a result, De La Cruz does not have a perfect profile either. In 513 plate appearances, De La Cruz only drew 40 walks, while striking out 158 times. Former #1 overall prospect Delmon Young is a fitting cautionary tale here, but if it translates to the major leagues, we’re looking at a fantasy star and potential 30-30 threat. Scout the Statline gives him a favorable comp to Christian Yelich and the eye-popping counting numbers helped boost him all the way to #6 overall in StS hitter rankings.
-Ross
ETA: 2023
A Scout the Statline success story from 2021, Volpe skyrocketed up rankings after a monster season where he slashed .294/.423/.604 with 27 home runs and 33 stolen bases. If you were following us closely at that time, you likely have Volpe in your collection of talent already. Many began pegging Volpe as heir to #1 overall prospect throne. His 2022 season did not help that chatter, however, as it was a mixed bag of success and struggle. Volpe still managed to flash power (21 home runs) and exciting speed (50 stolen bases), but the slash line sagged to .249/.342/.460. Not bad, but not what people hoped for from their top prospect heir apparent. The plate discipline remained strong, and Volpe made some adjustments midseason to set the ship sailing in the right direction after a poor start. An unusually low BABIP supports the case that some of Volpe’s struggles were related to bad luck. However, it also became clear that Volpe needs just a little more seasoning before he’s ready for the major leagues.
-Ross
ETA: 2024
Did Lawlar get a writeup from Scout the Statline in 2022? Of course, he did! Of course, this also is not a surprise since Lawlar was one of the very top selections in the 2021 draft, with many expecting him to go #1 overall. Lawlar had a monster start to his 2022 season, tuning up Single-A pitching with a .351/.447/.603 slash line before receiving a promotion to High-A. High-A proved to be a more challenging assignment, though Lawlar continued hitting, posting an .862 OPS before getting a brief stint at the Double-A level. There is very little to gripe about in Lawlar’s profile and he grades out as a potential 20-20 talent with strong all-around numbers. Lawlar is on the shortlist of players with the potential to be the #1 overall prospect come 2024.
-Ross
ETA: 2024
Somewhat surprisingly selected just above Lawlar in the 2021 draft, Mayer comes in just below him in these rankings. Mayer has been about as steady as they come, sporting a career .279/.394/.479 slash with 16 home runs and 24 stolen bases in 530 career plate appearances. Mayer’s plate discipline stands out, drawing a walk 16% of the time up. There hasn’t been an obstacle that Mayer has failed to overcome up to this point, though personally, nothing in his numbers stand out to me. It’s possible that the real breakout has yet to materialize, but I want to see a little more from a player that is ranking in the top 10 of many major prospect rankings.
-Ross
ETA: 2025
When I first saw Cristian Santana this high on our top 10 shortstop list, I was surprised. The more I looked into it, the more I began to understand. On the surface, Santana’s stat line doesn’t appear that impressive, as he slashed .215/.384/.374 with 10 home runs and 10 stolen bases in 2022, with most of his plate appearances coming at the Single-A level. The context, however, is critical to understanding his ranking. Santana spent the entire 2022 season as an 18 year old, an extremely advanced assignment for such a young player. Santana’s plate discipline is notable, as he walked in 17% of his plate appearances. Scout the Statline sees him as a high on base power bat. You probably won’t find anyone else ranking as high as Santana (#32 for hitters) as affordable as Santana is right now and it may not last long into 2023. I’ll be watching with intrigue to see how Santana’s age 19 season compares to Emmanuel Rodriguez’s age 19 breakout.
-Ross
ETA: 2022
Is it possible for a top 25 prospect, off the back of a major breakout, to still be underrated? I get that feeling with Tovar, whose bat was electric in 2022, slashing .319/.387/.540 with power (14 home runs) and speed (17 stolen bases). The season began with a tremendous spring training where Tovar was knocking the cover off the ball and finished with a cup of coffee in the major leagues. This is someone you can add to your roster that will contribute immediately in 2023. The only real question is what his ceiling is. Reportedly stellar defense supports his case to hold down the shortstop role in Colorado for the foreseeable future.
-Ross
ETA: 2022
The growth in power that Peraza experienced after the Covid break has been impressive to watch. Peraza went from 5 home runs in his first 710 (<1%) career plate appearances to 38 in his last 997 (4%), minor and major leagues combined and hasn’t given up any of his ample speed in the process (projecting for 27 steals per 600 plate appearances at peak). The new power output completely altered Peraza’s career trajectory and he now projects as a potential 20-20 threat at the major league level. It does seem to have come at the cost of some plate discipline, however, and Peraza will want to improve his approach to get on base enough to be effective as a big leaguer.
-Ross
ETA: 2024
In the “Tale of Two Noelvi’s” we were treated to the version of Marte that was heralded as the next big thing, to a tragic fall from grace, to a humble re-beginning. If you were to stumble into his yearly stat lines without knowing the context, you’d be none-the-wiser. Through three seasons in the minor leagues, Marte has been incredibly consistent, posting OPS’ of .883, .825, and .829 from 2019 through 2022, respectively. Oddly enough, his prospect stock was never higher than it was after the season with his lowest OPS, and ended up dropping after he improved it slightly. There have been reports of diminishing bat speed and skills, but from my perspective, this is more about expectation versus reality. Marte actually improved his stock in my eyes this season after catching fire around mid-season. For his career, Marte owns a .283/.369/.471 slash and projects to be a 20-15 threat at the major league level.
-Ross
ETA: 2024
Ronald Acuna’s little brother, Luisangel Jose Acuna, has some mighty big shoes to fill. Ronald Acuna has been a fantasy star since entering the major leagues at 20 years old in 2018. The path for Luisangel will be different, but he does have the looks of a big leaguer. At age 20, Luisangel spent his season split between High-A and Double-A. The numbers looked gaudy at High-A, where Luisangel hit .317 with 8 home runs and 28 stolen bases in just 240 plate appearances. Double-A proved to be a tougher challenge (and demonstrated that Luisangel will need some more time than Ronald did to find success in the majors), and Luisangel only managed to hit .224 the rest of the way. Acuna projects to hit for decent power (14 HR) and steal plenty of bases (26 SB) while drawing a historical comp to Carlos Gomez.
-Ross
ETA: 2025
A surprise entry on the Scout the Statline top 10 shortstops, Cheng deserves some acknowledgment for his performance since becoming a pro and I’m happy to be able to shine a spotlight on him. Coming from Taiwan, Cheng possesses a career .280/.395/.436 career slash line with 10 home runs and 49 stolen bases in 615 career plate appearances. 2022 mostly fell in line with his career numbers, and at Single-A, Cheng had a .795 OPS and 33 stolen bases. Cheng’s plate approach and speed are his greatest assets, but if he is able to develop power, he can be a difference-maker at the major league level.
-Ross
ETA: 2023
One of the best offensive prospects in the game, all the 6’5 Walker has done since turning professional in 2020 is smash. Debuting at Single-A at the age of 19 in 2021, Walker made quick work of the level, posting an impressive 1.162 OPS and earning himself a promotion to High-A. While the numbers came down to earth after the aggressive move, Walker still performed admirably, slashing .292/.344/.487. In his follow-up campaign this last season, Walker spent the entire season in Double-A where he continued to do damage. Walker hit .306/.388/.510 with 19 home runs and a surprising 22 stolen bases. The prevailing belief across the industry is that the hard-hitting Walker will continue to grow in power, but is unlikely to keep up such high stolen base totals as he moves up and develops. Expect Walker to be a middle of the lineup bat for the Cardinals for years to come.
-Ross
ETA: 2022
I think it would be fair to label Walker and Henderson as 1A and 1B. The two are so close in my opinion that I flip-flopped back and forth on who the best 3B prospect is multiple times in discussions with friends. Henderson had an absolutely massive breakout in 2022, taming his one big area of concern, his strikeout rate, to tap into his on base and power potential in a big way. His time in Double-A was particularly noteworthy, as he slashed .312/.452/.573 and cut his K% from 31% in 2022 a whopping 13%, bringing it down to a very nice 18%. As Henderson rose up to Triple-A and the major leagues, the strikeouts rose some and his production dropped accordingly. This is perhaps the one area of potential concern in Henderson’s profile to watch for moving forward. Nonetheless, Henderson remained productive, with a .894 OPS in Triple-A and .259/.349/.440 overall slash at the major league level, with 4 home runs and a stolen base in 132 plate appearances to complement his luscious locks.
-Ross
ETA: 2022
One of the quietest top prospects that you’ll find hanging out on everyone’s lists. There’s no disputing that Vargas has been a productive hitter for a number of years. Popping up on Scout the Statline’s radar way back in May 2019, I had this to say about Vargas:
"Not a lot of power has accompanied his bat so far this season as he has yet to hit a home run. At only 19 he has plenty of time to develop in that regard."
As is often the case, the power did show up the following season (2021), as Vargas posted career highs in home runs (23) and slugging percentage (.526) in the mid-minors as a 21 year old. He followed that up with a full season of plate appearances at Triple-A in 2022, slashing .304/.404/.511 with 17 home runs and a career-high 16 stolen bases, before receiving a brief cup of coffee at the major league level. While nothing in Vargas’s profile is particularly eye-popping, he has a knack for hitting with growing power. There is nothing to suggest that he won’t be a success at the major league level, the only question is how high his ceiling is.
-Ross
ETA: 2023
One of my favorite hitters in the minor leagues, Mead nearly checks all of the boxes that I look for in a player. Since coming back stateside after some time playing professionally in the Australian Baseball League, Mead has slashed .312/.383/.533 across Single-A, High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A with 28 home runs, only striking out in 17% of his 789 plate appearances. Mead has shown an ability to barrel the ball, performing consistently as he has moved up and faced stronger competition. While he takes a swinger’s approach to the plate (only walking in 9% of his appearances), does not have a definite defensive home, and has limited speed, Mead’s bat will find a way into the lineup. Add him to your collection with confidence!
-Ross
ETA: 2024
All that Encarnacion-Strand has done in his collegiate and professional career is hit. At Oklahoma State before turning pro, Encarnacion-Strand slashed .361/.442/.661. Despite the eye-popping numbers, Encarnacion-Strand was slept on and slipped to the Twins in the 4th round. In his professional debut later that year, it was more of the same, as Encarnacion-Strand slashed .391/.424/.598, albeit just in 92 plate appearances. He followed that up in 2022 by slashing .304/.368/.587 with 32 home runs for the Twins and Reds across High-A and Double-A in 538 plate appearances. Despite the sparkling numbers, it still seems like Encarnacion-Strand is being slept on. One potential red flag in his profile is his plate discipline, as he does not walk much (7%) and strikes out at a relatively high rate (25%). The free-swinging approach could be exploited by major league pitches. Nonetheless, given the quietness surrounding his name, Encarnacion-Strand strikes me as a good player to target.
-Ross
ETA: 2022
If you map Baty’s MiLB progress on a line chart, it’s obvious to see what direction he’s been moving. In 2019, Baty had an underwhelming debut. After being selected with the 12th overall pick, he mustered a .234/.368/.452 line, most of his plate appearances coming at the Rookie level. After the Covid break, in 2021, Baty turned things up at High-A and Double-A, slashing .292/.382/.473 overall. This last season, at the highest levels of the minor leagues, Baty improved his numbers yet again, slashing .315/.410/.533, setting a new career high in home runs with 19. The trend is exactly what you want to see.
-Ross
ETA: 2025
One of my favorites picks to blast up rankings in 2023, Caminero has been a hitting machine since becoming a professional in 2021. In 2022, across Rookie and Single-A levels, at just 18 years old, Caminero slashed .314/.384/.498 with 11 home runs and 12 stolen bases. Caminero manages to hit the ball with authority while keeping the strikeouts at bay, only striking out in 16% of his plate appearances. With this combination of skills, Caminero has the potential to be one of the better power hitters in the league by the time he fully matures professionally, projecting for 29 home runs per 600 plate appearances at peak. Add him now before it’s too late!
-Ross
ETA: 2025
A somewhat surprising riser in 2022, Paulino flashed power that he had not previously shown before. Prior to 2022, in the DSL and Rookie levels, Paulino flashed a strong bat, hitting for average and possessing strong plate discipline, but the power was nonexistent (0 home runs in 261 plate appearances). That changed in a big way in 2022, as Paulino struck 13 home runs while slashing .266/.359/.469. He coupled the newfound power stroke with excellent speed (27 stolen bases) and continued to show very strong plate discipline, walking in 12% of his plate appearances while only striking out in 19%. It’s also worth mentioning that Paulino draws a pretty favorable historical comp to Brian Jordan. This is definitely someone worthy of consideration of getting in early on.
-Ross
ETA: 2024
A 5th round pick in the 2020 draft, Keith made a solid debut in 2021, slashing .286/.396/.393 across Rookie, Single-A, and High-A. Keith made continued strides in 2022 as a 20 year old at High-A, improving his approach by cutting his strikeout rate down by 5% overall, while continuing to walk at a solid rate (10%) and slashing .301/.370/.544 overall with increased over-the-fence power. Keith opened some more eyes after a very strong Arizona Fall League, posting a 1.004 OPS. The improvements are notable and Keith is someone you will want to keep close watch on entering 2023.
-Ross
ETA: 2022
Jung has shown flashes of being one of the best power hitters in the minor leagues, slugging .592 at the highest levels of the minor leagues in 2021. 2022 was marred by injury, as Jung made a late debut and needed to shake off some rust, but he still managed to slug .540 at Triple-A and earned himself a cup of coffee at the end of the season. His already somewhat questionable plate discipline was a mess in 2022, unfortunately, as Jung struck out in 26% of his minor league plate appearances while only walking in 5%. Things were even worse during his short stint in the major leagues, as the strikeout rate ballooned all the way to 38%. Obviously that’s not going to be sustainable if he wants to be a successful major league player, however, I’m chalking this up to his injury and think ultimately he will settle back in closer to his 2021 ratios.
-Ross
ETA: 2022
Say hello to the best prospect in baseball. Corbin Carroll does everything you want to see in a prospect. He hits, he gets on base, he hits for power, and he steals bases. The proof can be found in his impressive 2022 season. Despite having just over 200 professional plate appearances in his career previously, Carroll was dominant across the high minors, slashing .307/.425/.611 overall, with 24 home runs and 31 stolen bases. His skillset was equally on display at both Double-A and Triple-A and resulted in a cup of coffee at the end of the season, where his hitting continued to hold up. The only nitpick in his stellar profile is a somewhat higher K% than ideal, striking out in 24% of his plate appearances. Carroll reminds me somewhat of Mike Trout coming up, though I am not expecting a Trout-like career trajectory. Nonetheless, Carroll is a must-own talent.
-Ross
ETA: 2022
Let’s start off with the concerns. Ruiz did not have a notable debut in the Major Leagues. He also doesn’t have a particularly strong track record, consistently hitting around .250 in the seasons prior to 2022. There are reports of concerning exit velocities. However, nobody in the minors possesses the type of speed that you may be able to find with Ruiz, who stole an incredible 85 bases with two teams (Padres and Brewers) across the minor leagues, despite sharing some of his minor league playing time with the big league clubs. He did this while slashing .332/.447/.526, showcasing solid plate discipline (12% walk rate, 17% strikeout rate), and surprising over-the-fence power (16 HR) in the high minors. After an offseason trade to the A’s, he will have plenty of leash at the major league level. There’s definitely risk here, but the Blue Sky potential is off the charts. I’m willing to take the chance.
-Ross
ETA: 2024
Debuting in 2021, Carter was aggressively assigned to Single-A at just 18 years old. While the statline is not particularly gaudy, the plate approach was apparent from the get-go, as Carter walked more than he struck out (34:28) before missing the remainder of his season with an injury: a particularly noteworthy accomplishment for a lad that much younger than his competition. Carter followed that promise up with a true breakout in 2022, slashing .295/.397/.489, spending most of his season at High-A, with a taste of Double-A near the end of the season. Carter does a little bit of everything, hitting for average with strong plate skills, solid power, and a dose of speed for good measure. He has the ingredients of an under-the-radar hit.
-Ross
ETA: 2025
In his 2021 debut, Rodriguez posted a solid .870 OPS as an 18 year old at the Rookie level, while only batting .214. He became a favorite here at Scout the Statline in 2022 after putting a remarkable season together before an injury put an end to his run. Overall, Rodriguez slashed .272/.493/.552 with 9 home runs and 11 stolen bases in 199 plate appearances, while walking more (57) than he struck out (52). The icing on the cake are reports that his exit velocities are among some of the best in the minor leagues. Not bad for a 19 year old. Rodriguez’s game is marked by patience (to a fault, perhaps) and a powerful stroke that does damage when he does swing. Rodriguez garners a Scout the Statline comp to Sammy Sosa. Don’t miss this one!
-Ross
ETA: 2024
One of the most curious cases for Scout the Statline. Brown entered the league after five seasons with Florida Southern. It’s clear that something changed with Brown his final season with Florida Southern, as he posted an OPS (1.254) 300 points higher than any other season in his career. He remained overlooked and was selected in the 10th round of the draft by the Giants. The success has translated to the professional level, where Brown has continued to consistently hit for average and power, while showcasing superior speed. Overall, Brown sports a MiLB career line of .348/.444/.622 with 25 home runs and 52 stolen bases in 556 plate appearances. So what happened? Did he just mature? Did his weight training program change his career trajectory? Beware of the mediocre plate discipline (10% walk rate, 26% strikeout rate) and the age-for-level production, but Brown could be a diamond in the rough.
-Ross
ETA: 2025
Debuting in 2021, Wood surprised the league with his more-advanced-than-expected hitting skills, slashing .372/.465/.535 while piling up the strikeouts, with 32 in 101 plate appearances. He addressed that area of concern in 2022, cutting down his strikeout rate by 10% while maintaining his high level of walks, and producing a line of .313/.420/.536, with 12 home runs and 20 stolen bases. It would be negligent to discuss James Wood without touching on his physical attributes as well. Standing at 6’7, Wood is a giant human being. The profile looks like a hitting talent with plenty of room to grow and a potentially massive ceiling. He possesses much more speed than expected for a person of his size, but I would not expect for it to be a big part of his game after he reaches the major leagues.
-Ross
ETA: 2024
The best way I have to describe Pete-Crow Armstrong (PCA) is to label him a professional hitter. That’s what I see when I look at his numbers. PCA does pretty much everything you want in your hitting talents, with a track record of hitting for solid average, power, and a good measure of speed. Overall, in 503 MiLB plate appearances across Single-A and High-A, PCA possesses a slash of .318/.388/.519 with 16 home runs and 34 stolen bases. The one nitpick is that he could stand to improve his walk rate, which was only 8% in 2022. PCA draws a Scout the Statline comp to another professional hitter, David Wright.
-Ross
ETA: 2024
One of the biggest high-risers of 2022, I first wrote about Chourio early last season, impressed by how well he was holding up despite being just barely 18 years old at Single-A. At the time, Chourio had 0 home runs on the season. When the home runs started coming, boy oh boy, they came in a flurry. Chourio’s hot streak earned him a promotion to High-A, where he continued to hit. His numbers came back down to earth after the hot streak ended, but Chourio still showed enough to receive a small taste of Double-A. Overall, Chourio, who is still just 18, slashed .288/.342/.538 with 20 home runs and 16 stolen bases. Chourio is in extremely good company, as the last players to perform well with such age-level factors were Fernando Tatis, Jr., Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., and Wander Franco. He draws a Hall of Fame Scout the Statline comp to Dale Murphy. Invest with confidence, but keep tabs on the slightly higher strikeout rate.
-Ross
ETA: 2023
Possessing one of the best hit tools in the minor leagues, Frelick hit .331 on the season and possesses a .331 career minor league batting average from 2021-2022. Frelick’s trend this season is particularly noteworthy, as he visibly improved throughout the season and as he moved up levels, hitting .291 at High-A, .317 at Double-A, and a scorching .365 at Triple-A. His plate metrics also improved in the transition from Double-A (20:33 BB:K) to Triple-A (19:16 BB:K). He grades out having below average pop, but slightly above average speed. MLB comps include Jeff McNeil with more speed, Luis Arraez with slightly more pop and speed, and Steven Kwan. With the new rule changes taking place, players like Frelick may carry more value than before. I’m buying this one.
-Ross
ETA: 2023
Cowser entered the league in 2021 as the 5th overall pick after a stellar college career with Sam Houston State. He has not disappointed. In his two seasons since entering the league. Cowser has slashed .297/.422/.473 across every level of the minor leagues. He’s major league ready at this point, though he may receive some more seasoning in the high minors before joining the Orioles professional squad. One area where Cowser has room to improve is with his strikeout rate. Overall on the season Cowser struck out in 28% of his plate appearances, piling up 174 K’s in 626 plate appearances on the season overall.
-Ross
ETA: 2024
At 16 years old, in the summer of 2019, The Martian was signed to massive hype and fanfare. The hype went as far as lauding him to be the next Mickey Mantle (here is just one such example). After a disappointing debut in 2021 where he posted a .731 OPS, Dominguez began to free-fall down prospect lists. His fortunes took a dramatic turn in 2022, after slashing a quietly good .273/.376/.461 across three levels (getting a small taste of Double-A at just 19 years old) with 16 home runs and 37 stolen bases. Is he Mickey Mantle? Unless he follows an extraordinary development path, no. Is he good? Oh yes, it appears he is after all.
-Ross
ETA: 2026
The good: Jace Avina, at just 19 years old (a relatively young 19 at that), smashed 15 dingers in 268 plate appearances, slugging .557. His overall slash line of .272/.392/.557 across Rookie and Single-A is indeed impressive work. Scout the Statline projects him for an average peak season of 36 home runs, good for a 75 on the 20/80 scale for Scout Grade Equivalencies.
The bad: his OPS dropped .260 points from Rookie level to Single-A.
The ugly: Jace Avina put up those sparkling numbers while striking out in 35% of his plate appearances.
I’m not buying it. That kind of strikeout rate is far too high to be sustainable in all but the most prodigious power hitters. I don’t think Avina is going to be one of them. I think this one is due to free-fall down the Scout the Statline rankings as he faces tougher pitching. He’ll be an interesting one to watch in the beginning of 2023 to see how he fares.
-Ross
ETA: 2023
Valera entered the league in 2017 as a 17 year old with a reputation for having a silky smooth swing. Things went awry in 2018, and Valera was only able to muster a .217 batting average and a .748 OPS. He rebounded in 2021, flashing on base capabilities with a .405 OBP and solid power with 19 home runs and a .505 slugging percentage in High-A and Double-A. The results were similar this season in the high minors, with Valera producing a .250/.353/.463 line with 24 home runs. At this point, barring significant adjustments, I think we have a pretty good idea of what you’re going to get with Valera: a solid OBP with strong power. Just don’t expect a .300 hitter here.
-Ross
ETA: 2024
Entering 2022, I felt Pereira could be on the shortlist of players with the most power in the minors, after he hit 20 home runs and slugged .686 in 221 plate appearances. The power was not as mammoth this season, as Pereira hit 14 home runs in 448 plate appearances, slugging .469 across High-A and Double-A as a 21 year old. The overall line, however, remained solid, as Pereira hit .277 with a .350 OBP. Surprisingly, he showed off more speed in 2022 than anything, stealing 21 bases on the season. It’s time to re-evaluate the type of player Pereira is, but whatever he is, it appears to be effective.
-Ross
ETA: 2023
After posting a 1.304 OPS for Alabama in the shortened 2020 season, Gentry was selected in the 3rd round by the Kansas City Royals. It appears that teams remained skeptical of his newfound production. It appears that they were mistaken in doing so. As a professional, Gentry has been nothing but productive. This season, across High-A and Double-A, Gentry slashed .326/.422/.542, swatting 21 home runs in 483 plate appearances. Gentry will likely see some time in the major leagues in 2023.
-Ross
ETA: 2025
Once again, the Rays appear to have pulled a rabbit out of the hat drafting, selecting Shane Sasaki with their 3rd round pick in 2019. In 2021, at 20 years old, Sasaki debuted at the Rookie level, slashing .290/.382/.403 in 144 plate appearances, swiping 22 bases. Sasaki was given an opportunity to show what he can do over a full season at Single-A in 2022 and he did not disappoint. Overall, Sasaki improved in every single offensive category, slashing.324/.410/.497, and stealing an eye-opening 47 bases. Sasaki even demonstrated decent power, slugging 9 home runs in 404 plate appearances.
-Ross
ETA: 2025
A Venezuelan with the Mariners, Gonzalez has shown himself to be a solid all-around hitter already at just 18 years old, playing across the DSL (at 17), Rookie, and Single-A so far in his career with consistent data across all levels. For his career, he is slashing.307/.393/.491 with 14 home runs and 18 stolen bases in nearly a full season’s worth of plate appearances. He is a breakout candidate for 2023.
-Ross
ETA: 2022
Benson earned himself a major league cup of coffee in 2022 after a breakout season where he hit .279/.426/.522 in 437 plate appearances at Triple-A with 17 home runs and 16 stolen bases, sporting very solid walk and strikeout rates along the way (75 walks, 91 strikeouts overall). Benson, a 24 year old, 6’5, 230 pound athlete, possesses ample power and speed. Unfortunately, the track record is not pretty and in his previous five seasons, Benson produced Mendoza Line batting averages, striking out far too much to make use of his ample athleticism. I’m not buying into this one without more confirmation.
-Ross
ETA: 2024
Drafted in the 5th round of the 2021 draft, Auer stuffed the stat sheet all season long for the Rays in 2022. Overall he slashed .290/.372/.487, hitting 16 home runs, 12 triples, 21 doubles, and stealing 48 bases. Auer is already looking like another successful player development story for the Rays. He’s a potential high-riser to keep your eyes on for 2023.
-Ross
ETA: 2024
Aggressively assigned to Single-A by the Rangers as an 18 year old in 2021, Osuna failed to leave a significant mark, but flashed his power and speed with 6 home runs and 17 stolen bases in 243 plate appearances. Starting 2022 at the same level (promoted to High-A near the end of the season), Osuna came out of the gate hot, and finished the season with a .302/.378/.427 slash line, fully showcasing his speed with 34 stolen bases and adding 9 home runs for good measure.
-Ross
ETA: 2024
Selected with the 9th overall pick in 2020, Veen made a stellar debut as a 19 year old in Single-A, slashing .301/.399/.501 with 15 home runs and 36 stolen bases. The speed was more than expected, and he showcased it again in 2022, stealing a total of 55 stolen bases. However, he slumped after a promotion to Double-A, hitting just .177/.262/.234 in 141 plate appearances (before the promotion, Veen was hitting .269/.368/.384). Having just turned 21 two days ago (happy birthday Zac!), it’s too early to jump off the bandwagon completely. The power and speed is there, and a promising AFL has helped restore some confidence in his future.
-Ross
ETA: 2024
Taken just ahead of Veen in the 2020 draft, Hassell entered the league with a reputation as a hitter. After his debut in 2021, where he slashed .303/.393/.470 overall with 11 home runs and 34 stolen bases across Single-A and High-A, Hassell was becoming a favorite of quite a few fantasy baseball analysts. 2022 started out well, with Hassell slashing .299/.379/.467 repeating High-A, but after a late-season trade to the Nationals, things began to fall apart. Hassell struggled to hit above the Mendoza Line for the remainder of the season and his power all but evaporated. I’m chalking this up to Hassell struggling with adjusting to his new organization/environment. How he adapts in 2023 is a narrative to follow.
-Ross
ETA: 2022
A 4th round pick in 2017, Smith-Njigba has had a bit of a hodgepodge career where he has at times flashed power and speed, but has never fully put it all together. In his age-23 season, a strong start to his 2022 campaign at Triple-A was ultimately rewarded with a brief cup of coffee. Across five seasons in the minor leagues, Smith-Njigba possesses a .276/.387/.414 triple-slash. At the high end offensively, Smith-Njigba could have a Yandy Diaz-type of career.
-Ross
ETA: 2025
Hailing from Venezuela, at 18 years old, Martinez was assigned to the Blue Jays Rookie level affiliate, hitting his way to a brief promotion at Single-A. Overall on the season, Martinez showed a solid bat, slashing .330/.442/.411. Over the fence power was nonexistent, but Martinez demonstrated an advanced approach by walking as many times as he struck out. In 2022, the power started showing up for Martinez in the box score. Across Single-A and High-A, Martinez slashed .293/.355/.477 with 14 home runs. A definite player to watch for 2023: if the power continues to grow, this is a bat you’ll want on your side.
-Ross
ETA: 2026
The diminutive 19 year old outfielder from the Dominican Republic flashed some of the best speed in the minors in 2022, stealing 55 bases in 499 plate appearances. That’s not the only thing that Clase showed capable of, as he also hit 12 home runs and 11 triples while slashing .267/.374/.463. The stat sheet is stuffed. Unfortunately, he also struck out 133 times (27%). He’ll need to curb that K rate to fully utilize the blazing speed he possesses as he moves through the minors.
-Ross
ETA: 2025
A 2nd round pick hailing from Canada, Caissie is a big-bodied masher (6’4, 190 lb) who showed a lot of promise in his 2021 debut, slashing .349/.478/.596 at the Rookie level before earning a promotion. Facing more mature competition since then, the numbers have sagged, and since his 2021 promotion to Single-A (451 PA), he has only hit .251, striking out in 29% of his appearances. In order to tap into that power (which I think is there), he’s going to need to improve that approach. In 2022, he finished the season with 11 home runs and 11 stolen bases.
-Ross
ETA: 2023
One of 2022’s high-risers, Zavala's promise started showing in Oregon as a sophomore in college (hitting .418 before the season was canceled). Before turning pro as a Junior, Zavala slashed .392/.526/.628 with more walks than strikeouts (50:31). That patience has continued as a professional, where across two seasons and four levels, Zavala has a career .280/.420/.444 slash line, flashing a solid combination of power and speed (17 HR, 23 SB in 607 PA). There are practically no red flags in Zavala’s profile: the only question is how high his ceiling is.
-Ross
ETA: 2024
Coming into 2022, I had Pages tabbed to possibly have the best power in the minor leagues. A rough season has dampened his outlook somewhat, but the power remained present. After belting 31 bombs in 2021, Pages followed it up with 26 this last season. Unfortunately, he also piled up 140 strikeouts and only mustered a .236 batting average. He’s going to need to hit more consistently to make use of the tremendous power.
-Ross
ETA: 2022
A line drive hitter that found success in the first three seasons of his career, rising as high as the top 30 in MLB.com’s prospect rankings, Waters’s trajectory hit a snag in 2021 as he hit .240 while piling up the strikeouts in Triple-A. The strikeouts are a nagging problem for Waters, who possesses decent power and speed, but not nearly enough to make up for such a high K rate. He did bounce back in 2022 to some degree, slashing .269/.345/.460 overall and will likely have a fairly long leash at the MLB level with the Royals in 2023.
-Ross
ETA: 2022
Jones, a 2nd round pick in the 2016 draft by the Cleveland Guardians, was billed as an on-base machine with ample power. While he does typically carry a high walk rate (career .394 OBP in the minors with a 16% walk rate), the power just hasn’t quite translated in games. The most home runs he has hit in a single season is 19 back in 2018. Jones should receive ample major league exposure in 2023.
-Ross
ETA: 2023
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It’s hard to fathom a 22 year old pitcher dominating the highest levels of the minor leagues the way Grayson Rodriguez has, posting a 2.20 ERA and striking out 12.5 batters per 9 innings, and actually falling down in the rankings. Yet that’s exactly what has happened to Grayson Rodriguez, who has fallen in MLB Pipeline and Baseball Prospectus’ rankings (albeit not by much at all). Rodriguez remains one of the most dominant prospects in the game of baseball and is ready to show what he can do at the major league level. Rodriguez projects for a 3.01 xFIP with a 29.8% K% (this would come out to about 240 strikeouts if he threw to as many batters as Aaron Nola did in 2022). Typically, I shy away from pitching prospects, but Rodriguez is one of those few exceptions.
ETA: 2023
In the humble opinion of this writer, Rodriguez and Painter are in a tier of their own when it comes to pitching talent. Painter has an edge in raw projections, while Rodriguez has an edge in proximity. Painter is an exceptional pitching talent, one that we don’t get to see come through the league that often. Nobody combines pure power and stuff with control on this list like Painter, who possesses the lowest peak projected BB%, K%-BB%, xFIP, and FIP on the list. Painter’s ridiculously good season spanned Single-A, High-A, and Double-A, and he dominated every level, posting an overall ERA of 1.56, a WHIP of 0.887, and 155 K’s in 103.2 innings. I would not be surprised for him to spend significant time in the major leagues in 2023.
ETA: 2024
Espino possesses some of the nastiest stuff in the minor leagues, striking out nearly 15 batters per 9 innings throughout his minor league career. Unfortunately, 2022 was marred by injury, and Espino was only able to make 4 starts and pitch 18.1 innings. Those 4 games were electric, however, as Espino struck out 35 batters (17.2 K/9) and posted a 0.709 WHIP. Espino’s 2023 has picked up right where 2022 left, and not in a good way, as Espino is reportedly already set to miss the first couple of months with an injury. This is starting to become a trend. Few match Espino’s projections (3.06 xFIP & 30.6% K%), but none of that will matter if he can't pair it with some innings pitched.
ETA: 2024
Few pitchers have seen their stock rise as dramatically as Brown’s has over the last 6 months. After a couple of solid seasons in 2019 in the low minors and 2021 in the higher levels, Brown went next-level in 2022, putting together a 2.55 ERA in 106 innings pitched as a 22 year old, striking out 134 batters (11.4 K/9) in the process. Brown made his professional debut near the end of the season and turned some heads with his performance. While he only started in two games, Brown pitched in an additional 5, tossing 20.1 innings, striking out 22 batters, and posted a mouth-watering 0.89 ERA. The data loves Brown, projecting him for a 3.22 xFIP at peak, with a 25.3% K%.
ETA: 2022
This one probably comes as a surprise on Scout the Statline’s list. Hall began his career as a first round pick in 2017 and rocketed up top prospect lists in short order, thanks to dominating stuff and impressive results. Hall has begun to fall somewhat out of favor after struggling some in the higher levels of the minor leagues. The primary culprit appears to be questionable control. In 2022, he posted a 4.70 ERA in Triple-A, walking 5.8 batters per nine innings. Hall had similar results in a short major league stint, posting a 5.93 ERA and striking out 19 batters in 13.2 innings. There’s no doubt that Hall will struggle to find success at the major league level if he can’t learn to tame the walk rate some. On the flip side, the stuff remains clearly dominating, and Hall struck out 125 batters in 76.2 innings (a whopping 14.7 K/9). The projections think that this dominating stuff can lead to successful results, projecting Hall for a 3.27 xFIP and a 30.5% K%. If Hall cannot figure it out as a starter, there is a high probability that he will find success in a bullpen role.
ETA: 2022
Relatively unknown out of the University of Delaware, Walter was drafted in the 26th round of the 2019 draft. Walter is older than most prospects at 26 and as a result, doesn’t appear on many top prospect rankings lists. However, Scout the Statline loves what it sees with the underlying data here. Walter possesses a career 3.09 ERA in the minor leagues, striking out 12.3 batters per nine innings and walking just 1.7, resulting in a 0.959 WHIP. Walter is flying under the radar at the moment, but scouting reports seem to match up nicely with what Scout the Statline is signaling here with the data. Walter is a sneaky add in deeper leagues that could end up making an impact for the Red Sox immediately.
ETA: 2023
Stone was someone I highlighted last year during my guest spot on the Call Up podcast. Statistically speaking, the results for Stone in 2022 were remarkable. Across High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A, Stone dominated the competition, posting a practically untouchable 1.48 ERA while striking out 12.4 batters per 9 innings (168 in 121.2 innings). Stone has the upside of a very effective #2 pitcher if it comes together for him at the major league level.
ETA: 2023
Similar to Walter, at 26 years old, Morris is likely seen by many as older for a prospect. Also like Walter, however, the numbers are hard to ignore. Morris possesses a minor league career 3.05 ERA with 12.8 K/9. The numbers were particularly impressive in 2021, as Morris cobbled together a 1.62 ERA in 61 innings in the high minors, striking out 13.7 batters per nine innings and holding a 1.00 WHIP. An injury sidelined Morris for most of the 2022 season, but upon returning, Morris was simply lights out in the minor leagues, striking out 39 batters in 21.1 innings with a 1.69 ERA and a miniscule 0.703 WHIP. The Guardians quickly moved Morris to the major leagues, where the initial results remained impressive, as Morris had a 2.28 ERA in 23.2 innings. His walk rate ballooned to 4.6 BB/9, which is something Morris will need to keep in check to sustain long-term success. Unfortunately, another injury will delay Morris’s 2023 debut and this is starting to become a theme for him.
ETA: 2022
Still just 19 years old, Perez has already made tremendous progress through the Marlins minor league system, starting 17 games at Double-A in 2022. In those 75 innings, Perez struck out 110 batters (12.9 per 9 innings) while keeping the free passes at bay (2.9 per 9 innings), posting a 4.08 ERA and a 1.160 WHIP. While there is a chance Perez debuts in 2023, barring injury he should be a rotation mainstay in the Marlins rotation by 2024 at just 21 years old.
ETA: 2024
Selected in the 3rd round of the 2020 draft by the San Francisco Giants, Harrison has had a stellar start to his minor league career. Harrison’s 2021 season was particularly noteworthy. Spending most of the season at Double-A at just 20 years old, in 113 innings pitched, Harrison posted an aggregate 2.71 ERA, striking out an absurd 186 hitters, and keeping his walk rate in the realm of respectable (3.9 BB/9). Harrison has rocketed up top prospect lists as a result, ranking as highly as 18th by MLB Pipeline. Harrison looks like the real deal.
ETA: 2024
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